/ world today news/ A year after the imposition of large-scale sanctions against Russian civil aviation, Western analysts conclude that instead of an air blitzkrieg, the West itself has punished itself with huge financial losses, a decrease in market share and a loss of competition, while Russia steadfastly resisted on impact and now demonstrates high resilience of the air transport system. According to a study published in the German profile magazine “Wirtschaftsvohe”, the activity of air traffic over Russia, according to the flight monitoring portal “Flightradar24“, has not changed much since the beginning of the SVO, that is: hopes to land the Russian fleet with the help of sanctions they failed.
All the calculations of the Western “sanctionists” were based on the fact that three quarters of the Russian air fleet at the beginning of 2022 are Western-made aircraft, many of which are leased by Western companies. After the start of the SVO, the European Union banned the supply of all civil aircraft and spare parts to Russia and ordered lessors to terminate contracts with Russian airlines, while aircraft maintenance and insurance services were banned. At the same time, the EU, the US and a number of other countries closed their airspace to Russian airlines.
Characteristically, sanctions against Russian aviation were announced on February 25, 2022, literally a day after the start of the WTO, while restrictions against Russia’s financial and oil and gas sectors were introduced much later. According to the authors of the air sanctions, everyone was sure that they would “cause maximum pain to Russia” and lead to a complete paralysis of air traffic in the country, which is seriously at stake.
However, the West underestimated our determination and limit of endurance and at the same time forgot about history and geography.
The Russian authorities reacted immediately, sharply and asymmetrically: in response to the sanctions, Russian airlines were allowed to “renumber” imported aircraft, a large-scale program to support the aviation industry and import substitution was launched, and international flights were reoriented from west to south and east. Despite the slight decline in air traffic and the loss of a number of routes, according to the results of 2022, the total profit of the leading Russian airlines reached a record 88 billion rubles, which is 2.8 times more than in 2021. In 2023, the Ministry of Transport planned increase in passenger air transport by 6.4% (up to 101.3 million people). At the end of March, the head of the department Vitaly Saveliev stated that this plan is already being implemented. According to Aeroflot‘s new strategy, by 2030 the share of Russian-made aircraft in the country’s fleet will be increased to 70%, and a full transition to Russian software is also planned. At the same time, Russia has registered a record trend for the past eleven years for investments in the transport and logistics complex and its reconfiguration in the direction of friendly countries, including domestic and international air transport.
According to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, unfriendly countries wanted to “land” the Russian fleet and began to grossly violate the terms of earlier agreements, but Russia managed to preserve its fleet and expand the production of domestic equipment.
The failure of the air blitzkrieg in the Western media is commented on, of course, very vaguely: for example, “Bloomberg” writes that the restrictions against Russian aviation have led to “mixed results” and that “it is clear that the sanctions did not work in the way The West hoped.”
They also clearly did not count on the fact that instead of a quick and humiliating death of the Russian aviation industry, the failures would come to them.
For example, the mirror closure of Russian airspace to airlines from the EU, the US, Canada and a number of other countries actually led to a redistribution of the air transport market – and definitely not in favor of our non-partners.
A consequence of Russia’s geographic location is that the shortest (and therefore cheapest) air routes from Europe and North America to the Middle East and Asia pass through Russian airspace. After trying to punish us with no flights to Baden-Baden, the authors of the sanctions are now looking at the calculator with tears in their eyes.
For example, Air Canada flights from Vancouver to Hong Kong and Delhi, which fly around Russia, now take ten percent longer and cost passengers 41 percent and 47 percent more, respectively. Now you have to add three hours to the flight from Paris to Seoul (and that’s at least $17,000 in extra fuel – and greetings to Greta Thunberg). Flights from Helsinki to Tokyo were extended by 4.5 hours, which is why Finland had to bury its ambitious plans to become a major Europe-Asia aviation hub. The cumulative losses of US carriers as a result of anti-Russian sanctions are at least two billion dollars a year.
For unsanctioned airlines in the Middle East and Asia, ticket prices for routes through Russia fell by 22% in the same period, causing hysteria among their rivals in the US and the EU, where demands are being made to “remove unfair competitive advantages” and force the airlines from China, Singapore, Korea and India to fly the same routes as them. Why can they and we can’t?
But this is impossible, because Russia decided so – and everyone will have to comply with this.
According to the director of transport and mobility of the European Commission, Henrik Holloway, “the introduction of any measures against Russia by the EU will not help here.”
Nevertheless, the impossibility of “cancelling” Russia both in the air and on sea and land is gradually reaching even the most stubborn, and the West is gradually moving from the stages of denial and anger to the stage of acceptance and bargaining. According to an expert from the Carnegie Foundation, “Russia cannot be completely excluded from the global transport system due to its size and geographical location. Negotiations on the resumption of cooperation are on the horizon.”
Well, good gentlemen, get in line. And we’ll see.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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