– The Russians have an advantage that is growing, unless there are significant deliveries from the US and other partners in Europe.
That is what Tom Røseth, head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, tells Dagbladet.
A year ago, Ukraine had taken back large areas and the belief that they would emerge victorious from the war was strong among many. But as Western arms support for Ukraine erodes, so does the belief that Putin’s Russia will emerge victorious from the war.
SNUDD: – You may have lost a little hope, says Tom Røseth about Ukraine. Photo: Forsvarets høgskole Show more
– Dramatic turning point
Tormod Heier, professor of military strategy and operations at the Norwegian Defense College, believes that the war in Ukraine is now facing a dramatic turning point in that the West is experiencing a political shift when it comes to support for Ukraine.
– More and more people are finding that the expensive times mean that they would rather spend money on their own communities, rather than keep the war going in Donbass, says Heier, and adds that unpleasant questions therefore arise:
– People can ask questions about “how long will we sacrifice lives in a war where there will most likely not be major territorial changes?”. Expenditures that currently go to Ukraine can be used on local communities to remedy the difficult times that millions of Europeans and Americans experience every day.
– TURNING POINT: – More and more people are finding that the expensive times mean that they would rather spend money on their own communities, rather than keep the war going in Donbass, says research leader and lieutenant colonel Tormod Heier at the Staff School at the Norwegian Defense Academy. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB Show more
When asked which of the two presidents – Putin or Zelenskyj – has more reason to smile at the moment, Heier is clear:
– Putin. It does not seem that Ukraine and the West are capable of liberating the 20 percent of Ukraine that is occupied. But Putin would probably like to gain full control over all four eastern counties in Ukraine, which he has incorporated into Russia.
– Worrying
Ukraine lacks ammunition for both the Western systems and the Soviet-produced systems, and must therefore ration. In contrast to Russia, which has been faster in producing.
– They have entered into a war industry and production which means that the arms industry runs 24/7, while Europe has not done that. In addition, Russia has the advantage of having imported ammunition from North Korea and probably also Iran, says Røseth.
On December 19, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will produce one million drones next year. Here the drones destroy “targets” in Ukraine. Reporter: Marte Nyløkken Helseth / Dagbladet TV. view more
According to Røseth, it was expected that Russia would adapt and become a war economy country, but not that the West would fail when it came to Ukrainian support.
– It has always been known that Ukraine would be dependent on Western arms support. That it has cracked so quickly is worrying and not expected. We must remember that this war has serious long-term consequences for Europe – and that it has taken a long time to bring up the capacity for arms production and it has been very frustrating, both in Europe and in Norway.
– How would you describe this period for Ukraine?
– They are facing a crossroads. The US is reducing aid, but we don’t know how much. Europe must also realize that they must take immediate and powerful measures for arms and ammunition production, replies Røseth.
Brutal death account
– New brutalities
Røseth concludes that if Ukraine’s partners fail and do not supply sufficient ammunition, then in the long run they will lose the war – unless something completely unexpected happens.
– In any case, it is likely that Ukraine will start losing along the front line in six months or a year, if they do not get enough ammunition. It will also lead to new brutalities like we saw north of Kyiv, in Butsha and in Mariupol.
He adds:
– We will also have a Russia with greater territorial ambitions going forward.
– Last year, people had great faith in Ukraine and they took back larger areas. Have you lost faith in them?
– You may have lost a little hope. I also think some people had too high hopes for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Realistically, they had rather delayed deliveries of both ammunition and weapons.
Depending on what the Americans arrive at regarding Ukrainian arms support, Røseth believes that it will be reduced in the long term. A Ukrainian victory may mean that they are able to hold the front line, while a victory – with taking back larger territories – becomes much more difficult.
– The large, serious consequences this will have mean that Europe must wake up and compensate. If the US fails and Europe fails to replace the support, it will increase the probability that Russia will win the war, says the intelligence teacher.
– From being unlikely last autumn, it is now possible that Russia can win the war, he continues.
War is knocking at the door
– Failures and deficiencies
When asked how satisfied Putin has reason to be, Røseth replies that he probably uses the fact that Europe and the US are “failing” Ukraine to his advantage.
– Even with all the failures and shortcomings, they still have this closeness to the war, and the endurance that the West does not seem to have.
However, Tormod Heier believes that such is the status today, then Ukraine will be able to defend itself.
– They have 800,000 soldiers who seem well motivated. They are strategically balanced, have sustainable rotation arrangements so that they do not wear down, and they have enough access to ammunition. This allows them to defend themselves, but not make major breakthroughs.
– And Russia?
– The same. They have over 600,000 soldiers, but they lack mechanized units. We are talking about changing small areas of land at a very high human cost.
2023-12-22 04:13:28
#Greater #faith #Russian #victory
