On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi called the Russians’ latest bombing of Mykolayiv one of the most brutal attacks of the war.
For weeks, there have been almost daily attacks in this area, while Ukrainian troops try to enter the neighboring Kherson region, which is occupied by the Russians.
Former defense chief Sverre Diesen believes the Russian attacks are an attempt to stop the Ukrainians from taking back the important port city of Kherson.
– Russia has a trade-off to make. Should they prioritize a continued offensive in the Donbas, or should they reinforce the Russian divisions to the south in the Kherson area?, he says.
According to Diesen, it will be impossible for the Russians to do both.
Must make priorities
On the west side of the Dnieper River, near Kherson, the Ukrainians have launched an offensive to isolate significant Russian forces.
– IMPORTANT AREA: A Russian soldier patrols an area of the river Dnieper in the Kherson region May 20, 2022. Photo: AP
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This in the attempt to recapture Kherson, which is also an economically important area for Ukraine.
– Kherson is the only major city the Russians have control over. If the Russians lose the foothold they have here, we are talking about something approaching a strategic setback for the Russians, says Diesen to TV 2.
Despite the fact that the Russians have so far only made limited progress in Donbas, the expert believes it is crucial for them to take control of the remaining part of Donetsk county.
– They recognized the two areas as independent people’s republics, and the Russians are, in a sense, dependent on acquiring military control over the area, he says.
– The former chief of defense believes further help from the West will be of crucial importance. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
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Therefore, Putin’s Russia faces a difficult choice when it comes to prioritizing forces, Diesen believes.
Can turn the tide of war
Nevertheless, the former defense chief believes that Ukraine is not capable of driving the Russians back from Kherson.
The prerequisite for them to be able to do that is if the West steps up the delivery of weapons, and supplies Ukraine with other types of weapons.
– Messages are coming from the Ukrainian side that they have an overwhelming amount of targets to choose from, but they have to make strong priorities as they have few artillery systems and limited ammunition, says Diesen.
He adds that the Western arms supply has so far been effective, but in order to completely turn the picture of war, more of them will eventually be needed.
– We are talking about the long-term build-up of Ukrainian forces. This with modern western equipment such as combat aircraft and combat vehicles, he says.
The West can withdraw
In the past, Zelenskyj has criticized several NATO countries for sending too few weapons. Germany is among the countries that have distinguished themselves in the president’s criticism.
– CRITICAL: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demands more arms delivery from several NATO countries. Photo: SERGEI SUPINSKY
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– He has a point. It is not only a purely military issue, but also the type of Western caution that strengthens Putin’s conviction that Western agreement on Ukraine is going to crack, says Diesen.
Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that this could lead to the West losing control over time, and as a result the Russians will win.
A dangerous Europe?
To TV 2’s question whether it will open up a more dangerous world in Europe if Russia wins the war, the former defense chief answers:
– That is correct. Many observers with personal background and experience from Russia say so. This is crucial for Europe’s future security situation.
He believes that Putin’s and Russia’s further course of action and behavior depends on how the outcome will be in Ukraine.
– Russian President Vladimir Putin is aware that the West will eventually turn its back on Ukraine. Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev / AP
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Although the brutal war has been going on for around five months, Diesen still believes that there may be a long time left.
– Just not with the same intensity. Both parties have such large losses that it can hardly continue for years, he says.
If there is some form of stagnation or standstill in operations, the loss rates will drop and the state of war can continue to be maintained.
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