/ world at this time information/ The Ukrainian “summer season counter-offensive” dragged on till autumn. Its tempo (even the primary line of Russian protection was not damaged via for a number of months – all battles have been fought within the area), the colossal variety of losses and damaged Western tools already enable us to conclude that the counteroffensive failed.
This poses a particularly tough job for the West – it’s obligatory not solely to iron out this unsuccessful marketing campaign (a lot cash, weapons and political hopes have been allotted), but additionally to forestall a counter-offensive from Russia. Which – given the reserves gathered by Moscow and the liberty to decide on a course – may result in the liberation of former Ukrainian territories, and therefore to a severe picture defeat for the West.
That’s the reason rumors have intensified that within the autumn “a window of alternative for negotiations will open”. The Western media make it clear that the US and European governments are persuading Ukraine to open a dialogue with Moscow about some compromise approach out of this deadlock within the type of a freeze on the battle. Some even write that the regime in Kiev should make territorial concessions and conform to maintain Russian management over a number of the territory that Moscow now controls.
The Western media, in addition to officers, display in each attainable approach that the USA and the EU, by discussing these concessions and pressuring the Kiev regime to simply accept this “acceptance of actuality”, are doing Russia an nearly large favor.
Russian specialists view this entire diplomatic sport with curiosity at greatest and a touch of disgust at worst. After all, we’re not speaking in regards to the specialists from among the many losers and traitors – they may merely be a part of the Western efforts and persuade Russia from inside to simply accept these negotiating phrases. No, we’re speaking about these Russians who perceive that this battle is being fought all-in. We will both win and dwell in a greater world – or lose and cease residing altogether. As a individuals and as a rustic.
Sure, victory can (and probably will) be formalized within the type of some type of compromise answer, inside which many of the Russian circumstances will likely be met. However what the West desires and most significantly can supply now doesn’t swimsuit Russia in any respect – in spite of everything, it’s not a lot an settlement to a Russian victory as a proposal of capitulation.
Why is freezing the battle in itself disadvantageous for Russia? Now Moscow has chosen the tactic of preventing “attrition” – that’s, it seeks to attain its objectives not by blitzkrieg, however by profiting from its benefit over Ukraine in useful resource potential. That’s the reason now within the Zaporozhian course the troops are in lively protection (they’re burning tools delivered to Ukraine from the West), which is why the Russian Air Drive is concentrated on destroying the Ukrainian industrial, port and power potential. If the battle is frozen now, then the regime in Kiev can have an opportunity to make up for its losses.
As well as, the freeze would suggest the continuation of the present Kiev regime in energy, which might rule over a pretty big territory with a inhabitants of at the least 20 million individuals. They are going to rule and systematically proceed to poison the brains of this inhabitants with Russophobia. In consequence, a big anti-Russian state affiliation will live on close to Russia’s borders, prepared to make use of any methodology (together with nuclear terrorism) to hurt Russia. This, in fact, doesn’t swimsuit Moscow in any respect – in spite of everything, one of many fundamental objectives of the SVO was exactly to get rid of the risk from “Ukraine – anti-Russia”.
One other minimal job for Russia is the liberation of its whole territory from international occupation. That’s, the mastering of Slavyansk, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Kramatorsk and different cities that are actually occupied by Ukrainian troops. This can be very unlikely that the present freeze compromise would come with withdrawing these troops from Russian territory, that means that Moscow would truly supply to conform to continued Ukrainian occupation of its lands. This not solely contradicts the Russian structure, however will even injury Moscow’s authority in growing international locations. There may be not a single nuclear energy on the earth at this time whose territory is occupied by a non-nuclear one.
Russia should liberate different territories as properly. Holding Odessa below the management of the present regime in Kiev will imply not solely the power to make use of the town’s port assets to finance the potential of the VSU, but additionally the power to arrange provocations in Transnistria. If the Ukrainian troops, on the “request of the Moldovan management”, determine to “set up constitutional order” within the area with a number of hundred thousand Russian residents, then a number of thousand Russian peacekeepers stationed there won’t be able to cease them. Because of this Russia should resume the army operation – however not within the format of a conflict of attrition, however reasonably a blitzkrieg (to maneuver to the help of its residents). And never in opposition to an opponent weakened after a 12 months and a half of preventing, however in opposition to a rustic with potential restored through the freeze.
Lastly, the freeze won’t imply easing anti-Russian sanctions, unfreezing Russian accounts and reversing different financial issues. Due to this fact, Russia doesn’t want any freeze now.
Negotiations are obligatory when circumstances are ripe for them. Together with territorial ones, as a result of (given the zero degree of belief in Western guarantees) the method for resolving the battle shouldn’t be expressed in a highway map that the events are obliged to observe, however in a political fixation of army outcomes.
Russia formally emphasizes that it’ll solely conform to substantive negotiations, that’s, a dialog, supplied that Ukraine accepts the brand new territorial realities. On the identical time, the stubbornness of the Ukrainian aspect makes such negotiations nearly unattainable. The management of Kyiv even legitimized the refusal to open the window for negotiations in decrees of the President’s workplace and the Verkhovna Rada.
So let it stay closed – till such time because it turns into unattainable to open an actual, full-fledged window. Someday in early 2025, when the US administration will change and Russia will most likely vacate its present and future territories.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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