“The Russians have given Mariupol an ultimatum until morning to surrender. But why wait so long when the answer is clear: get the shit done.”
Clear language on Facebook from an advisor to the mayor of the besieged city. Mariupol may have been under attack since the start of the war, Thursday a month ago, but it is still combative. The blitzkrieg that Russia had in mind has turned into a war of attrition.
“Russia has a problem, but it’s not over yet,” emphasizes Frans Osinga, professor of war studies at Leiden University. “The real challenge for Ukraine is to hold out for as long as possible in a very slow wear and tear.”
Progress has stalled
The Russians seem to be focusing on three main goals. In addition to the siege in the south of Mariupol, attempts are made to get to Odessa in the southwest from the annexed Crimea. Ukraine has been able to prevent this by stiff resistance at Mykolaiv for a week.
In addition, Moscow still hopes to get its hands on Kiev as the top prize. Although shelling there last night intensified again (with at least six deaths as a result), the Russian main force is still about 25 kilometers from the capital, according to the British Ministry of Defense. An advance from the east has stalled, which from the north faces heavy Ukrainian resistance.
All in all, the front has not changed significantly in a week. Large cities such as Kharkov, Sumy or Chernihiv, which were not in the hands of the Russians then, still resist today, despite devastating shelling.
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