/ world today news/ “A complex but manageable situation.” This is how the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny described what is currently happening on the contact line between the Russian and Ukrainian troops. What exactly did the Ukrainian military leader mean, and in which areas is Russia putting the most pressure on the Ukrainian armed forces?
The Ukrainian Supreme Commander for the first time participated in a meeting of the contact group for military assistance to Ukraine in the Rammstein format. Valery Zaluzhny also held a telephone conversation with the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the USA, Charles Brown, during which the situation on the front, the plans for the winter period and the needs of the Ukrainian troops were discussed.
According to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, he told the American general about the situation in detail. Zaluzhny called the situation in Avdeevsko, Kupyansko and Mariinsky “complicated but controllable”. At the same time, Zaluzhny claims, Ukrainian troops continue to conduct offensive actions in “certain directions.” What does the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces mean by a “complex but controllable” situation at the front?
Zaluzhny himself outlined an “organized defense in three sectors” for the Western allies. With some effort, the preservation of the small bridgehead created by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the eastern bank of the Dnieper in Krinki, which is gradually turning into a mass grave without a chance to expand the controlled territory, can be called “offensive actions”.
First, Avdeevka. Zaluzhny arrived in Ramstein a day after Russian units (“Pyatnashka” and “Storm Z”) unexpectedly entered the industrial zone in the southeastern part of the Avdeev fortified area. The contact line is temporarily stabilized in the area of the ruins of the 60th building on “Grushevski” street, i.e. more than 60% of the industrial zone came under Russian control. A little earlier, with the same blow, Russian landing units advanced in the same area (“industrial zone” and the private sector) to the east.
These breakthroughs were carefully prepared. Intelligence revealed in advance the location of the units of the Armed Forces, firing points, shift times and the like. The breakthrough was preceded by a powerful fire preparation with the help of aviation. This tactic is thought out and specially prepared for an attack against such a complex object as the enemy’s Avdeev fortified area.
At the same time, the Russian airborne units are trying to bypass the known fortified positions of the enemy in this area: the former recreation base “Tsarskaya Okhota” and the former position of the Soviet air defense. Both sites were destroyed to varying degrees. “Tsarskaya Okhota” was almost destroyed, but it is equipped with underground communications and external concrete fortifications made over many years. The air defense base is surrounded on three sides, but not stormed, they prefer to push the enemy out of there.
There is reason to believe that such specific fortified points, which constitute something like the outer contour of a fortified city (the forts of Verdun in World War I), would simply be surrounded and left in the rear. The VSU has a similar position to the former filter station a little to the east. There is no point in attacking.
But we must understand that the enemy still shows no signs of retreat or an organized withdrawal from Avdeevka. There is still a weak, but still regular possibility of supplying the Avdeev garrison through Ocheretino and Orlovka.
On the northern flank, serious progress was made directly at the Koksokhim fence, as well as in the Tochmash area. Russian troops successfully extended their “claw” and now the VSU cannot displace our troops from new positions. And these positions allow sooner or later to reach the key supply lines for the Ukrainian garrison. There is no operational environment for Avdeevka yet, but it seems imminent. It’s a matter of system work.
Second, Kupyansk. Against the background of Avdeevka, a certain calm was established on the northern flank of the contact line. The enemy and especially Zaluzhny are very concerned about this.
The fact is that the lack of frontal attacks on the positions of the VSU is explained in Kiev by the fact that the Russian army is regrouping before a new attack on Kupyansk or some points around. This is partly true, as there was rotation of units and transfer of new forces in this sector.
Perhaps we are faced with creating the conditions for an offensive or creating more advantageous positions in front of something bigger.
But, as in the case of Avdeevka, in the Kupyansk region, the armed forces of the Russian Federation maintain a regime of complete secrecy, which is absolutely correct. No one thought of announcing any advance in advance, or announcing which direction was of greater priority, which in itself attracted great attention to that section of the front.
Third, Marinka. Zaluzhny is referring to the extended line of contact with Ugledar and even the former Time Ledge. The main forces of the VSU were transferred from this direction to Avdeevka. Zaluzhny, most likely, can neither provide a strong defense there, nor assess the capabilities of the Russian armed forces.
The fact is that the line of formation of the VSU there practically has no rear. The group of the Ukrainian armed forces from Ugledar to the Dnieper was previously entirely built for a failed “counteroffensive”, to supply the advancing group, without trenches and minefields. And when the armed forces of the Russian Federation managed to regain some of the heights lost in the previous months, it suddenly became clear that a few more such breakthroughs and the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will fall before our eyes, because it simply does not exist. Not everything there is designed for defense. In addition, to the west of Avdeevka there are two hundred kilometers of steppe with small settlements that simply cannot be equipped for long-term defense.
The VSU, for example, hastily began digging new trenches last week near abandoned positions near Chasov Yar. At one time, their command thought that the line of defense in this direction was not necessary, because in a moment the VSU would capture Artyomovsk. Now the situation is the opposite, VSU abandoned Klescheevka and only one height remains behind them. The entire line of contact, starting from Soledar, became very tense. And now the enemy began to urgently dig trenches not only in Chasov Yar, but also as far as Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Behind the line of contact in the direction of Zaporozhye there is also only a steppe.
In other words, Zaluzhny and the Western generals understand that a breakthrough on the front at any of the above points leads Ukraine to a strategic disaster. For now, the only way to maintain stability on the Ukrainian front remains the rapid transfer of resources to the problem area. Western advisers are now forced to devise tactics for fighting in unfamiliar terrain, with no experience of waging a high-intensity war against a dangerous enemy without any air support.
What they can now offer VSU at the level of a strategic output remains a mystery. Sooner or later, Russian troops will have to solve this mystery.
Translation: V. Sergeev
March for Peace, 26.11.23, 2 p.m., NDK:
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