Russia at War: Economic Resilience and Political Repression
Two years of war have reshaped Russia, isolating it from the West and increasing its dependence on China. While political repression reminiscent of the Soviet Union has become prevalent, Russia’s economy has defied expectations and remains resilient. Despite the hardships faced by some, many Russians are experiencing higher incomes and positive sentiments towards President Vladimir Putin. In this article, we will explore the changes that Russia has undergone during this period of war, examining its impact on daily life, the economy, support for the war, and the costs incurred.
Daily Life: Shifting Dynamics and Mixed Sentiments
The invasion and draft prompted a significant number of people to flee Russia, with over 820,000 individuals leaving the country. However, some have returned. Additionally, the war has had adverse effects on mental health, leading to an increase in alcoholism diagnoses and a surge in demand for psychologists. The blocking of social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram resulted in decreased traffic, while the use of secure platforms such as Telegram and VPNs skyrocketed. International travel from Russia also plummeted due to the conflict.
On the other hand, the deployment of men to the front lines has reduced the workforce back home, resulting in higher wages for those who remain. Many Russians are taking advantage of generous government subsidies to invest in new homes. Despite these changes, a significant number of people express positive sentiments towards President Putin, whose popularity has surged since the war began and is currently at its highest level in seven years. However, it is important to note that due to the risks involved, the honesty of individuals in polls may be compromised.
The Economy: Resilience Amidst Challenges
Prior to the war, Russia’s financial situation was stable, with low government debt and ample reserves. The country’s agile technocrats were well-prepared to handle any crisis that might arise. Despite initial shocks, the Russian economy recovered, thanks in part to emergency financial measures, high oil prices, and increased trade with China and India. Moscow also implemented significant state spending to stimulate the economy.
Although trade with Europe declined by approximately 65% due to Western sanctions, trade with China, India, and Turkey experienced a boom. Chinese cars, in particular, dominated the Russian market, with six of the top ten car brands being of Chinese origin. The overall GDP was driven up by substantial government stimulus related to the war, resulting in a drop in unemployment and a majority of Russians reporting that their economic well-being remained the same or improved. However, inflation surged, and certain sectors experienced imbalances, such as shortages of medicines and reduced car production.
While Russia can sustain its military efforts in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, its long-term economic future remains uncertain. A plunge in oil prices or an end to the military spending spree could pose significant challenges.
Support for the War: Propaganda and Repression
The resilient economy has bolstered support for President Putin, who has benefited from a campaign of propaganda and repression. Nationalist songs celebrating Russian identity have surged in popularity, diverting attention from critical news. The government has allocated a substantial budget for “patriotic education,” including funding for a “youth army” engaged in goose-stepping exercises. The percentage of people believing that the country is moving in the right direction is at its highest level in decades.
Support for Russian military actions in Ukraine is even higher, although many Russians may feel uncomfortable expressing their opinions due to the risks involved. Repression against those opposing the war is widespread, with treason convictions nearly tripling and a crackdown on the L.G.B.T.Q. community. Soviet-style denunciations have resurfaced, as citizens report “unpatriotic” behavior to authorities. Freedom of assembly has been obliterated, resulting in the detainment of nearly 20,000 Russians for their anti-war stance. Independent journalists have been forced to flee, and many have been labeled as foreign agents. Aleksei A. Navalny, a prominent critic of Putin, tragically died after years of inhumane treatment in prison.
Blood and Treasure: Costs of the War
While Russia’s military initially made grave mistakes, it has regrouped and successfully fended off a Western-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russia has gained control over 18% of Ukraine, up from 7% before the invasion, but still falls short of its territorial claims. The cost of maintaining control over these regions and advancing further has been substantial. Military spending has surpassed social spending at the federal level for the first time since the Soviet era, comprising approximately one-third of the national budget.
The human cost of the war is also significant, with an estimated 60,000 Russian soldiers killed in the fighting. This translates to two Russian soldiers for every square mile taken from Ukraine since the invasion. Despite the stated support for the war, only 36% of Russians favor another mobilization to replenish forces. To address this shortage
