Russia and Ukraine: After days of escalation, what will Putin do? – BBC News Arabic

As you can see, the critical question is: What will Putin do now? As I am the BBC’s editor in Russia, you would expect me to answer this question. I’ll be honest with you and tell you I don’t know the answer. But there are some notes.

The Kremlin this week accused “the entire West” of escalating the war in Ukraine.

But almost three years of war in Ukraine have shown that Vladimir Putin is the one responsible for escalation to achieve his goals.

Putin’s comprehensive attack on Ukraine, his decision to annex four Ukrainian regions to Russia, the use of North Korean forces in the Kursk region, his decision on Thursday to target the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with medium-range ballistic missiles new, and his risk of going on strike. Western countries, all this is a great escalation of the conflict.

I once compared Vladimir Putin to a car that doesn’t reverse and has no brakes, driving down the highway with the accelerator stuck to the floor.

I see that nothing has changed. Don’t expect Putin’s car to slow down or get louder now, in the face of long-range missile strikes on Russia. But promotion is another matter, and possibility.

Ukraine must prepare for more Russian attacks and powerful raids.

Western governments will assess the level of danger, following Putin’s warnings.

Even before the televised speech of the Russian leader, there were fears in Western countries about the escalation of Russian attacks.

Britain’s intelligence chief warned that Russian intelligence was working to “create chaos and sabotage on the streets of Britain and Europe”.

“We saw criminal arson, vandalism and other acts,” he said.

In June last year, Putin said Moscow could arm Western opponents because Ukraine was allowed to strike inside Russia with Western long-range missiles.

He said: “We believe that if someone is thinking of pushing this type of weapon into the battlefield to target Russian territory and cause us problems, why don’t we push weapons of the same type in these regions around the world, aimed at conscious awareness. the institutions of the countries that do this in Russia?”

The nuclear option

Our question about what Putin will do is always followed by another question: Will Putin use nuclear weapons in a war in Ukraine?

The President of Russia has sent unique signals in this regard. When the “special military campaign” began a large-scale attack on Ukraine, he issued a warning “to those who are thinking of external intervention. “

He said: “If any party tries to stand in our way or pose a threat to our country or our people, they should know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be a level they have not seen in all of history. .”

But the leaders of Western countries do not see this as a nuclear threat. Since the beginning of the war, the West has crossed many “red lines” when it supplied tanks, advanced missile systems, and F-16 fighters to Ukraine.

But the consequences that the Kremlin threatened did not come.

Last September, Putin announced that he had reduced the conditions for using nuclear weapons. The order was published this week. There is a clear warning to Europe and America not to allow long-range missiles to fall on Russian territory.

The West has also crossed this red line. In his address to the nation, Putin confirmed Western reports that Ukraine fired American “Atakum” missiles and British “Storm Shadow” missiles at sites inside Russia.

At the beginning of this week, the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper, which is close to the Kremlin, asked a retired general about Russia’s response to the American missiles that hit the Bryansk region. his answer: “It is short to believe that World War III will break out because of strikes on a military base in the Prayansk region. “

It would be reassuring if this were the Kremlin’s view.

But there is no sign of this in Putin’s address to the nation. It seems that his message to Ukraine is as follows: This is a red line and I really defeat this issue, and I urge you to cross it.

Novaya Gazette writer Andrei Kolesnikov told me recently: “Even Putin doesn’t know if he can use nuclear weapons.”

He said: “We know that he is a very emotional person. The decision to start the war was also emotional. So, we have to pay attention to his opinion on changing the nuclear doctrine.”

He continued: “Based on this, we have to admit that Putin can, in some circumstances, use tactical nuclear weapons within the framework of a limited nuclear war. This does not solve the problem. the whole world.”

Tactical nuclear weapons are nuclear warheads used on the battlefield or in limited strikes.

Putin may be emotionally involved, but he is clearly motivated by his hatred of the West. He seems determined not to back down.

But he knows that the world will be completely different.

After two months, Joe Biden will leave the White House, and Donald Trump will follow him in office.

President-elect Trump has voiced his opposition to military aid to Ukraine. It is a serious criticism of NATO.

He recently said that “talking to Vladimir Putin is a good idea.”

Clearly, this is all for Putin.

This means that, despite recent warnings, the Kremlin could forego major increases now. This is if Russia is basing its calculations on the idea that Trump will help end the war on Russia’s terms. If the calculations change, Moscow’s response is likely to change as well.