/ world today news/ The visit of the Russian president to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the extensive program of negotiations of the accompanying delegation, is an excellent indicator of how freer the leading countries of the world majority have become in their actions in the last year and a half.
At first glance, it should have turned out to be the opposite – for 18 months now, high-ranking representatives of various departments of the USA and the EU have been traveling around the world and demanding that various countries cut their relations with Moscow. But the effect is the opposite: trade, technological cooperation and various contacts of non-Western countries with Russia only increase.
Bilateral trade with the UAE will reach $9 billion in 2022, despite the fact that we are competitors in the main export products. And it will apparently surpass this figure in 2023. Trade turnover with Saudi Arabia is also growing. And in general, none of the important countries for Russian foreign trade has shown a decrease in bilateral commercial and other contacts with us.
The only exception is the European countries, which, strictly speaking, are themselves a party to the conflict in what is happening around Ukraine. Thus, instead of increasing US dominance in world affairs, we see it weakening. For consolation, Washington gets Finland as a member of NATO, which is hardly a colossal gain even on a regional scale. Against the background of how countries even like Japan or South Korea are sabotaging Western sanctions against Russia, for the Americans to get a few new satellites in the European north seems like an unfavorable exchange of losses and gains.
What is the reason for this paradoxical result? It seems the main thing here is that it is obvious to the whole world that the USA is not in its best shape. And the longer their inability to stand up to Russia with anything serious continues, the more pressure Washington feels from countries whose loyalty it didn’t even have to doubt a few years ago.
To persuade their former allies to curb their appetites, the Americans now lack the money and political will. And it is too late to do so amid the growing influence of BRICS, Chinese development projects, and Russia’s openness to all forms of cooperation with those driven by its national interests.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been the US’s closest partners in the Arab East for decades. Their security, and in some sense even their physical survival, depended on the quality of their relations with the Americans. After the end of the Cold War, the US was able to further strengthen its presence there when it took advantage of Saddam Hussein’s attack on Kuwait in 1990 and invaded Iraq itself 13 years later.
Traditionally, the American military presence is seen by the Arab monarchies as a guarantee against possible encroachments by Iran. All this allowed the US to feel quite confident in this region. Over the past decade and a half, however, the situation has begun to change. And after the conflict between Russia and the West moved into the military-technical plane, these changes acquired a rapid character. None of the Arab oil states are ready to talk to the US as if nothing happened.
No one expects Saudi Arabia or the UAE to fully become allies of Russia and adversaries of the West. But at the same time, we should not perceive the independent behavior of the countries of the Arabian Peninsula only as a primitive way to raise their stakes in the dialogue with the United States. This would be too simple – and does not correspond to the basic principles of behavior of any country in a chaotic international environment. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and many others seek not only to slightly improve their positions, but also to create new conditions for dialogue with the Americans. And since this implies equality, for the US it is equivalent to its crushing defeat: Washington does not know how to interpret international politics in any other way.
If we look at the main points on the agenda of the negotiations between the Russian leader and the leadership of the two powers of the Arabian Peninsula, we will see that they all reflect changes that were previously difficult to think about. This agenda consists of three main points: energy, the conflict over Israel and BRICS. In all three stories, we see serious disagreements between the Arabs and Washington, the inability of the Americans to compromise, and the confidence of Saudi Arabia and the UAE that they can achieve changes that benefit themselves. Russia here acts as an alternative pole, also interested in establishing fairer rules of the game.
The most established part of our cooperation with the countries of the Arabian Peninsula is the coordination of policies to manage the world oil market. The OPEC+ format allows countries to agree positions on oil production volumes, avoiding competition or unilateral actions that could harm other producing countries.
Let us recall that 40 years ago, it was the reckless export strategy of the USSR in the oil market that became one of the reasons for the separation between us and the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan only worsened the conflict, the basis of which was in the economic sphere. Russia now operates according to modern rules for intervention in the free market of energy resources. This suits both Moscow and the Arabs, who appreciate the opportunity to independently manage their most important resource.
The second most important issue in Vladimir Putin’s negotiations today is the situation around Israel and the Gaza Strip. Here, in the last two months, the United States has done everything to undermine the confidence of the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE have the capacity or political will to take a firm stand against Israel’s actions. Let’s not forget that the Israelis still have nuclear weapons – and no one can take the risks involved. However, the Arabs are quite rightly dissatisfied with the policy of the US, which has taken a position of unconditional support for the Israelis. The Americans, with their own hands, have created a situation where they are no longer the only main partner to whom all parties to the conflict can turn.
The third topic on the official agenda of the visit is related to the upcoming entry of both countries into the BRICS group in January. And if the first two points were about the economy and regional security, the last one is about the prospects for global governance. Joining the main organization, which represents an alternative to the West on a global scale, will mean for the countries of the Arabian Peninsula a qualitative change in their international situation. The transition to the top league of world politics not only automatically increases their importance in the dialogue with the US. It creates a fundamentally new context for this dialogue, as well as for all other external relations. Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be able to choose to engage with the West not one-on-one, but as part of a more powerful community.
For Russia, all this means moving towards a world order where our interests will be fully reflected. Not to mention the fact that the participation of such rich countries in BRICS will facilitate a faster transition to the erosion of the monopoly position of the US dollar, the transition to national currencies in trade and the creation of alternative payment systems. In this regard, the greater independence of partners from the countries of the Arabian Peninsula is useful for Russia and necessary for a sustainable world order.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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