A military exercise between neighboring Russia and Belarus has been launched on the latter’s territory. It has created fear in Ukraine and the West that a new Russian ground offensive could be launched, writes NTB and The Guardian.
The exercise will last until 1 February, and will include patrolling the airspace at the Belarusian border, as well as providing air support for the troops on the ground.
This is reported by the independent Russian newspaper Medusaciting the Belarusian Defense Ministry.
The Security Council of Belarus says that the exercise is defensive, and focuses on reconnaissance and defense.
When the invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February, several Russian troops were sent to Ukraine from Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Aleksandr Lukashenko, who is often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator”, have met several times since the full-scale invasion began in February.
When the attacks against Ukraine began, Russia and Belarus had recently held a joint military exercise.
Since then, Belarus has been Russia’s ally in Europe, and Vladimir Putin has met with Lukashenko several times. The close contact between the two allies has also led to speculation about whether Belarus will take a more active role on the battlefield in Ukraine.
– Don’t have many choices
Russia researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski at NUPI believes that the military exercise between the two countries reflects a bigger picture with Belarus and Aleksandr Lukashenko’s position in Europe.
– Two and a half years ago, Belarus experienced mass demonstrations against the regime, because several believed it was proof that Lukashenko had lost the election. The demonstrations were crushed by the Belarusian regime, with good help from Russia, says Godzimirski to Dagbladet.
The protests in Belarus were stopped, but also led to Lukashenko becoming dependent on Russia and Vladimir Putin.
– No one from the West wanted to talk to him. He doesn’t have many choices. He must in many ways meet a number of Russian demands and expectations, including making Belarus’ military territory available to Russia, says Godzimirski.
He goes on to say that it is nothing new that Russia and Belarus join forces for a military exercise. He points out that the countries have had an agreement since 1996 that they will work together in security policy fields.
– It is nothing new, nor surprising. There were also military exercises in January and February of 2022, which were the prelude to the invasion on February 24, says Godzimirski.
He also says that the military exercise could lead to fears that a Russian and Belarusian military campaign against Ukraine is developing.
– Some fear that one can try to use areas to cut off Ukraine from the aid that comes from the West. The exercise also provides Russia, and partly Belarus, with a better understanding of the situation.
– Unlikely
Retired lieutenant-general Arne Bård Dalhaug says that the main conclusion of several sources is that an attack from Belarus against the Ukrainian capital Kyiv is very unlikely.
– I tend to think that such an attack is unlikely, says Dalhaug to Dagbladet.
That opinion is also shared by the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW). In December, they wrote that it is extremely unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future, but that Russia will nevertheless work purposefully to create the impression that Belarus will do so.
When the war started on 24 February, Russian forces moved in from both Belarus and Russia. But in March, Russian authorities said they would shift their focus to Donbas in eastern Ukraine – an area Russia annexed in October.
Ukraine’s will to resist has also been strong, and the fighting is now taking place in the east and south of Ukraine. Belarus is located north of Ukraine, and thus it can be extra challenging to send in new soldiers from Belarus.
– If Russia is going to do that, then they have to establish a new supply line. From Russia to Belarus, and then to Ukraine, says Dalhaug.
Dalhaug believes there could be two reasons why the two countries should have a joint military exercise.
– One could be that they want to keep the threats of attacks from Belarusian territory as well as training for forces that can be sent to Donbas (eastern Ukraine, journ.amn.), says Dalhaug.
– Never static
Dalhaug also says that one of Russia’s goals may be for the Ukrainian forces stationed north of Kyiv to remain. The Ukrainian capital is located just over 100 kilometers south of the border with Belarus.
As Ukraine has to keep its forces there, in the event of an attack from Belarus, the forces cannot be sent to the Donbas where the fighting is currently taking place.
Putin’s great disaster
– If the possibilities of attack had been zero, then those forces would have been sent to Donbas a long time ago, says Dalhaug, and adds:
– It is never a static situation. If Ukraine withdraws its forces very much from the areas north of Kyiv, or removes them completely, then the probability of an attack begins to rise, says Dalhaug.
He does not believe that Ukraine will take any action in the form of moving its military forces or its air defense as a result of the exercise.
– I don’t think Ukraine will do anything special. They have a force that they think is good enough, north of Kyiv. Air defense is more important around Kyiv than it is near the border with Belarus, says Dalhaug.