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If Russia has finally managed to drag Belarus into war, it does not bode well, experts say.
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A few hours after those massive attacks on several cities in UkraineBelarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko says he will deploy joint forces with Russia on the border with Ukraine.
According to Lukashenko, the background is that Ukraine is preparing an attack on the country.
– Russia has long tried to take them to war. The novelty is that it looks like Lukashenko is a bit on the slide. He has withstood that pressure over time, he tells VG Tom Røseth, dean of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
– So it’s a little creepy.
Today’s statements are important because Lukashenko has so far been skeptical of active interference in Putin’s war. They took part in the war because their land was used to enter Kiev at the very beginning of the war. A number of rockets have also been launched into Ukraine from the southern parts of the country, but never with the troops.
If they now actually deploy troops entering Ukraine from the north, Russia will have more to cheer for.
– If he can push the button and involve Lukashenko, it will be a new front for the Ukrainians (in the north). Because the Russians don’t have the ability to do it on their own.
Depleted among the Belarusians
Belarusian forces will represent a clear military advantage for Russia, which is starting to run out of personnel and generally losing ground in several parts of Ukraine.
At the same time, Røseth points out that he will be surprised if Belarus actually actively enters Ukraine with troops. It will be unpopular with the people.
– Lukashenko has long been negative about Belaru’s forces crossing borders. so if Putin leaned on him so strongly that he really did, it would be a very new and negative development.
– So, formally speaking, they will have to mobilize and I think the civilian population has a negative attitude about it.
Unclear threat
At the end of March, a month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko said:
– I have said a thousand and twenty times that we have no plans to fight in Ukraine. But the topic is hot, he said, pointing out that they can only be drawn to war in one way: if the aggression starts against them.
Lukashenko also said that Russian nuclear weapons can do this placed on its territory.
According to Røseth, the question is what it actually means to rally troops: is it a joint exercise along the border, which they have already done several times, or do they actually want to enter Ukraine from the north?
– It doesn’t have to mean they’re actually going in. Until then, I’m really skeptical that he’ll be persuaded. this is a scenario he does not want.
Lukashenko is completely addicted to Putin
– Why was Lukashenko skeptical about active contribution?
– Relations between Belarus and Ukraine have historically been good, although in recent years it has been difficult. The support of the Belarusian population was low for entering the war.
But Lukashenko is completely dependent on Putin and Moscow for his power, especially afterwards protests in 2020, which overthrew the regime in Belarus. After Western condemnations here, Russia was left as the most important ally, Røseth says.
– He has no other supporters. It is entirely possible that Putin said: “if you don’t participate now, our support will end and you will be replaced as prime minister”.
Putin can do this by supporting another candidate. In this case, he suggests that Putin is increasingly using all available means to win the war.
It could be a diversionary maneuver
Roseth notices it Lukashenko’s statements it is very reminiscent of typical Russian rhetoric, including the fact that Ukraine threatens to attack.
– Of course, Ukraine has no interest in attacking Belarus. So this is simply directed from Moscow.
Another explanation for the fact that they now say they are rallying troops is that it is to divert the attention of Ukrainian forces from the areas they are currently occupying – and where Russia is losing ground.
– It could be a diversionary maneuver to disrupt Ukrainian forces in the north and be unable to maintain momentum in south Kherson and east.
