Prices apartments in recent months they have achieved record results. The market has not slowed down yet nieruchomo¶ci. Expander’s report shows that we can still talk about a housing boom. In the 11 analyzed cities, prices increased by at least 10 percent. Every year. Most of them are in Sosnowiec (by 31 percent) and Gdynia (by 20 percent). In the latter city, for an apartment of 50 sq m. you have to pay as much as 80 thousand. PLN more than a year ago.
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Housing prices are breaking new records. When will their growth slow down?
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The prices of flats skipped the holiday season
This year, housing prices have not fallen in the summer. The highest rates in history were recorded in 9 out of 10 cities analyzed by Expander and Rentier.io. In Warsaw, median prices per sq m reaches almost 12 thousand. zloty. It is also worth mentioning Rzeszów and Gdynia, where prices have increased by 14% since January. and 13 percent The situation in Gdańsk is also interesting. There, in March, the median broke 10,000. PLN per sq m, but in the following months it fell. In August this “round” amount was beaten again and a new record of PLN 10,556 per sqm was set at the same time.
Housing prices photo: Expander and Rentier.io
However, there are exceptions to this trend. In Katowice and Białystok, prices are falling for the second month in a row. However, in none of the 11 analyzed cities are the prices of flats lower than in the previous year.
Flats are becoming more expensive due to interest rates and a good working situation
The housing boom has been fueled by record low interest rates of 0.1 percent for over a year. According to the Expander report, the second factor that influences the increase in prices is the good situation on the labor market. Poles are not afraid of losing their jobs, and the rate unemployment in July it was only 5.8 percent. Moreover, according to the data GUS, salary increased by 9.5% y / y.
As a result, it is easier to make a decision to enlist credit a mortgage for several hundred thousand zlotys. Additionally, mortgage loans are still very cheap and quite accessible. Low and high interest rates inflation They also encourage investors for whom flats are a source of attractive profits to buy – believes Expander expert Jarosław Sadowski.
Housing prices may slow down
There are also the first signs of a likely slowdown in house price growth. First, the number of mortgage applications is declining. According to BIK, in July and August, there were 43 thousand applications, respectively. and 42 thousand On the one hand, it’s still a lot. In the past, exceeding 40,000 conclusions were rare. At the same time, however, it is definitely less than in spring – in April it was almost 51,000.
It is also worth recalling that new rules for calculating creditworthiness, resulting from Recommendation S, have been in force since July. They do not allow to increase the available loan amount by extending the loan period over 25 years. Even if the client wants a loan for 35 years, the bank, when calculating the available loan amount, will take into account the installment higher than the actual installment, because it is calculated for a period of 25 years.
Another dragging factor is that interest rates have already started to rise credits mortgage. Recently, the WIBOR 3M rate, which determines the interest rate of most mortgage loans, has increased. Several banks also introduced margin increases for floating rate loans and fixed interest rates. Of course, loans are still much cheaper than before the pandemic. However, they will slowly return to the previous levels. Next year we will probably see an increase in NBP rates, which will further increase WIBOR and interest on mortgage loans.
NBP report – there is a shortage of apartments on the market
The factor that will certainly not affect the drop in housing prices is the supply and demand for housing. According to the NBP report on the housing market, in 2020 there are 393 apartments per 1,000 inhabitants. Converting it, it is less than 30 sq m. per person.
This is slightly more than in 2019, but Bartosz Turek of HRE Investments, said in money.pl, that these numbers may be understated. He also added that in Western Europe there are even twice as many square meters per person as in Poland.
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