JAKARTA – The rupiah exchange rate during trading on Friday, November 22, 2024 is expected to weaken against the US dollar.
Citing Bloomberg, the rupiah exchange rate on Thursday, November 21, 2024, the rupiah rate in the local market closed down 0.38 percent at the level of Rp15,930 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank spot dollar (Jisdor) Bank Indonesia (BI) rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.52 percent at the price level of Rp15,943 per US dollar.
PT.Laba Tradingindo Berangka director Ibrahim Assuaibi said hopes for a path to lower interest rates had been reduced, although unsettled, in recent weeks.
“The market estimates a 25 basis point interest rate cut of 52% at the December Fed meeting, compared to 82% last week, according to CME’s FedWatch alat,” he said in his press release, cited Friday November 22.
A Reuters poll shows that most economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates at the December meeting, with a more moderate cut by 2025 than was expected a year ago. month due to higher inflation risk from Trump’s policies.
Additionally, Ibrahim said recent comments from Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, had shown the central bank was slow and measurable in its path of tapering.
“Investors are waiting for Trump to appoint a finance minister, one of the highest-profile cabinet positions that oversees the country’s financial and economic policies. Several other Trump options have raised questions about their qualifications and experience,” he explained.
Meanwhile, from within the country, Bank Indonesia revealed that there will still be space for lowering interest rates or the bi rate in the future, although it will be limited . Bank Indonesia’s interest rate cut will take into account its low inflation, as well as national economic growth.
Furthermore, seeing the development of rapidly moving global dynamics, as the BI inconference is focused on strengthening the stability of the rupee exchange rate against the impact of growing geopolitical uncertainty to the global economy , with American political developments following Donald Trump’s victory as president.
Thus, the direction of BI interest rate policy in the future will continue to pay attention to the movements of the rupee exchange rate and the outlook for inflation in the country, as well as the development of data and dynamics changing conditions, looking at room for further declines in interest rates.
Previously, Bank Indonesia decided to maintain the interest rate or BI rate of 6%, with a deposit interest rate of 5.25%, and a loan facility interest rate of 6.75% at the meeting of the Board of Governors (RDG) in November 2024.
The decision to maintain the BI rate is consistent with the monetary policy aimed at ensuring inflation control in 2024 and 2025 with a target of 2.5 plus minus 1%, and to support sustainable economic growth and stability of the rupee exchange rate due to increasing uncertainty in the global financial market.
Ibrahim predicts that the rupiah will move volatile, but will close to strengthen in trading on Friday, November 22, 2024 in the price range of Rp15,920 – Rp16,000 per US dollar.
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**In what ways are global political developments, such as uncertainties surrounding Trump’s economic policies, impacting investor confidence in Indonesia and consequently affecting the rupiah’s exchange rate?**
## World Today News Exclusive Interview: Rupiah Outlook in a Volatile Global Landscape
**Host:** Welcome to World Today News. Today, we’re tackling the fluctuating rupiah exchange rate and its implications for the Indonesian economy. We’re joined by two esteemed guests: Mr. Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director of PT. Laba Tradingindo Berangka, and Dr. [Name of Second Guest], a renowned economist specializing in Southeast Asian markets.
**Section 1: Global Factors & Market Sentiments**
**Host:** Mr. Assuaibi, the article mentions a potential reduction in expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Could you elaborate on this shift in market sentiment and its impact on emerging currencies like the rupiah?
**Ibrahim:**
*(Mr. Assuaibi explains his insights on the Fed’s policy, investor reactions, and how global interest rate movements affect the rupiah)*
**Host:** Dr. [Second Guest’s Name], Mr. Assuaibi highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic policies. How do you see these political developments impacting investor confidence and capital flows to Indonesia?
**Dr. [Second Guest’s Name]:**
*(Dr. [Second Guest’s Name] shares their perspectives on the global political landscape, its potential impact on Indonesia, and the role of investor confidence)*
**Section 2: Domestic Outlook and Bank Indonesia’s Response**
**Host:** Bank Indonesia has signaled limited room for further interest rate cuts while maintaining a focus on inflation control and economic growth. Dr. [Second Guest’s Name], how do you assess this balancing act in the current economic climate?
**Dr. [Second Guest’s Name]:**
*(Dr. [Second Guest’s Name] analyzes Bank Indonesia’s policy stance, weighs the implications of inflation and growth considerations, and discusses potential challenges)*
**Host:** Mr. Assuaibi, your prediction suggests a volatile but potentially strengthening rupiah today. What are the key factors driving this outlook, and how do they relate to the broader economic trends?
**Ibrahim:**
*(Mr. Assuaibi elaborates on his prediction, identifies specific indicators influencing the rupiah’s short-term movement, and connects it to the larger economic picture)*
**Section 3: Looking Ahead – Challenges & Opportunities**
**Host:** Both guests have highlighted the complexities facing the rupiah in a volatile global landscape. Looking ahead, what are the biggest challenges and opportunities for the Indonesian economy in this environment?
**(Open discussion between both guests, exploring potential scenarios, risks, and growth prospects for the Indonesian economy)**
**Host:** Thank you, Mr. Assuaibi and Dr. [Second Guest’s Name] for sharing your valuable insights. This has been a fascinating discussion on the dynamic interplay of global and domestic factors influencing the rupiah exchange rate. Stay tuned to World Today News for continued coverage of these crucial economic developments.
**Disclaimer:**
The views expressed in this interview are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Today News.
