The strengthening of the ruble on the Moscow Exchange, which had lasted for almost a week, was cut short at trading on Wednesday.
Against the background of the growth of the dollar in Forex and statements by the State Department about possible sanctions against Russia in the event of forceful intervention in the situation in Belarus, the dollar and euro rates again exceeded 74 rubles and 88 rubles, respectively.
At 15:16 Moscow time, transactions with “tomorrow” settlements are concluded at 74.22 rubles per dollar (+ 0.87%) and 88.0575 rubles per euro (+ 0.45%). The American currency rises in price by 64 kopecks, the European one by 40 kopecks.
For the growth of the ruble, “it is necessary to de-escalate geopolitical tensions, and in the near future it is not necessary to count on it,” says Yuri Popov, strategist at Sberbank CIB.
The day before, a senior US State Department official told Reuters that an additional package of sanctions could be imposed against Russia in the event of a “direct intervention” in Belarus, where protests have lasted for three weeks.
The trigger for this decision will be the military support of the regime of Alexander Lukashenko, whose re-election for the sixth consecutive term is not recognized by the West. Washington’s position was brought to Moscow by Undersecretary of State Stephen Bigan, who last week met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The United States was alarmed by the statements of Russian President Vladimir Putin about the creation of a “reserve” of security officials, which could be sent to Belarus in the event of an aggravation of the situation. On Wednesday, the Russian General Staff added fuel to the fire by announcing the preparation of “joint exercises” with the Belarusian army.
Historically, September is a relatively good month for the ruble: over the past 16 years, it has completed 10 times in positive territory or with neutral dynamics against the dollar, indicates Tatyana Evdokimova, Chief Economist of Nordea for Russia.
In September, the ruble may be supported by a weakening dollar after the Fed’s decision to change its inflation control strategy, as well as a favorable balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, Popov notes. Tax payments of raw material exporters on MET will increase by 70 billion rubles, he estimates.
On the other hand, the Central Bank will sell less currency on the market: in September, the volume of interventions at the expense of the NWF will decrease by another 40%, to 40 billion rubles, economists surveyed by Reuters believe.
“Geopolitical factors in September will continue to be of great importance for the ruble, as tensions remain in connection with the development of events in Belarus and the situation around Alexei Navalny. Meanwhile, the US presidential campaign is gaining momentum. In this regard, a significant increase in demand for Russian currency on the part of investors is unlikely, ”Popov warns.
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