Primoz Roglic is 45 seconds ahead of Richard Carapaz and 53 on Hugh Carthy. He is anything but safe: 1 weak moment and he lost a minute at La Covatilla.
In my opinion, Carapaz and Carthy have better cards uphill. They must be able to spend time on Roglic. But how much? I therefore expect an exciting ending.
Roglic did ride a strong final climb in the time trial, although that is a completely different fact, and he has the best team.
A few months ago, Roglic started on the penultimate day of a big round with a 57 seconds lead, but still lost. Yet I have the feeling that he no longer suffers from that loss in the Tour.
Roglic is relaxed, even jokes, which is un-Roglic. That is also logical: in the Vuelta there is much less pressure on the boiler. Roglic’s season can no longer go wrong anyway: he has won Liège and became 2nd in the Tour, that is no mean feat. In the Tour he was paralyzed by the stress, which is not bothering him now.
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To get him out of the red, the competition will have to isolate Roglic, try to put him in quarantine. That is a problem, because Jumbo-Visma has a super strong team with Kuss, Bennett, Gesink and Vingegaard.
Ineos did allow Froome to save himself in the time trial with a view to this stage. They have to do something with that. Froome will have to get out of his pipe. And Ineos also has a patent for going all-in.
That also applies to Carapaz. He has already won the Giro and could say: I don’t care about 2nd or 3rd place, I’m going for it. Although the past teaches us that stage races are also used conservatively for 2nd and 3rd place.
Carthy then has the mental advantage he gained over the Angliru. The question is: is he satisfied with his 3rd place or does he think: I can win that game here, I take the risk of losing my podium place. These are of course tactical considerations that we cannot estimate.
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More than a duel between 2 or 3 riders, it will be a duel between the legs. In this field the strongest will prevail. If Roglic wins the Vuelta, it is because of his regularity and thanks to his stage victories, if Carapaz wins it is because he still has a strong final shot after 3 weeks and if Carthy wins, it is the victory of the revelation.
But if the difference is still only 5 seconds after tonight, then I don’t think they will race for it in the final stage to Madrid. Then the teams simply congratulate each other. In cycling, they do this before the race is completely finished, unlike Trump and Biden.
Renaat Schotte
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