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Robeco forecasts resilient US growth in the face of global turbulence;
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The scenarios considered highlight the need for adaptable investment strategies;
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High valuations and policy changes call for caution;
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Sustainability trends are staying on their long-term course despite short-term challenges.
For 2025 Robeco paints a picture of another difficult year for the global economy, marked by contradictory signals and complex dynamics. The American economy continues to show resilience, despite the slowdown in consumption. While other regions, particularly Europe and China, face continued secular pressures.
Macroeconomic scenarios
In its base scenario, Robeco expects a moderation in American growth in 2025 against a backdrop of slowing consumption and rising customs duties. However, fiscal and monetary policies remain procyclical. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.7%, reflecting a slight stagflationary trend while inflation remains slightly above forecasts. European consumption could see a modest cyclical rebound on the back of easing credit conditions and a strengthening of the fiscal impulse, while China’s recovery efforts should offset some downside risks without neutralizing disinflationary pressures .
In a more optimistic scenario, synchronized central bank easing and continued disinflation could lead to stronger-than-expected global growth. Growth in American consumption remains above its long-term trend and the stability of energy markets is helping to control inflation. This environment could favor the recovery of the global economy. Furthermore, an easing of trade tensions between the United States and China would strengthen business confidence and investment, providing additional support to equity markets and emerging economies.
Robeco’s pessimistic scenario envisions a turbulent environment where the imposition of new salvos of tariffs, geopolitical tensions and high military spending lead to stagflationary pressures globally. The ensuing spike in inflation would disrupt bond markets and corporate investment, with the bulk of the tariffs passed on to the American consumer.
Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco
Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco: “Trade policies could lead to stagflation, creating a challenge for a resilient U.S. economy. In our outlook for 2025, we show how the momentum factor could abruptly reverse in this data-driven environment, highlighting the importance of remaining flexible in multi-asset management. »
Outlook for financial markets
Robeco expects US stocks to continue their upward trajectory, with the S&P 500 reflecting stretched valuations after a year of strong performance. However, market sentiment could suddenly shift depending on the evolution of the macroeconomic context, which underlines the importance of adopting diversified and dynamic portfolio management. Robeco’s outlook calls for caution at the level of High Yield bonds, where spreads are tight, while European Investment Grade credit seems more attractive than its American counterpart. Robeco teams expect evolving macroeconomic data, U.S. trade policy and global liquidity to impact asset class performance in 2025.
Sustainable Investing Insights
As we approach 2025, Robeco’s sustainable investing outlook highlights the resilience of long-term sustainability trends, despite near-term uncertainties. Current economic challenges could lead some companies and investors to relegate sustainability to the background in the short term. The overall trajectory towards decarbonization, however, remains unchanged. While the United States may see a temporary decline in support for sustainability under new leadership, tougher ESG regulations and Europe’s continued commitment to green industries provide a strong foundation for sustainable investments. Despite the presence of certain obstacles, enthusiasm for achieving global sustainability goals is expected to continue beyond 2025.
Rachel Whittaker, Head of Sustainable Investing Research at Robeco
Rachel Whittaker, Head of Sustainable Investing Research at Robeco: “Despite short-term challenges, the transition to a more sustainable global economy remains a key pillar of long-term growth. Europe’s regulatory and policy environment remains favorable, and investors who take a forward-looking approach are well positioned to skillfully navigate near-term uncertainties. »
Auteurs :
Peter van der Welle, Strategist Sustainable Multi Asset Solutions
Rachel Whittaker, CFA, Head of SI Research
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