In its 2025 economic outlook entitled “This is not a landing,” Robeco predicts another difficult year for the global economy, marked by contradictory signals and complex dynamics. The US economy remains resilient despite a slowdown in consumption. Other regions – particularly Europe and China – are coming out of the trough, but remain under long-term pressure.
In its base case, Robeco expects US growth to slow in 2025, dampened by a slowdown in consumption and higher tariffs. Nevertheless, both fiscal and monetary policy remain procyclical. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.7%, reflecting a slight stagflationary bias as inflation is slightly above consensus. European consumption could see a modest cyclical rebound, supported by easing lending conditions and increased fiscal stimulus, while China’s stimulus measures are expected to offset some downside risks without reversing disinflationary pressures.
In a more optimistic bull scenario, synchronized central bank easing and steady disinflation could lead to stronger-than-expected global growth. With U.S. consumption growth above its long-term trend and stable energy markets keeping inflation in check, this environment could support a global economic recovery. If trade tensions between the US and China ease, business confidence and investment would be boosted, benefiting both stock markets and emerging markets.
In the bear scenario, Robeco assumes a turbulent environment in which rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions and high military spending lead to global stagflationary pressures. The resulting rise in inflation would roil bond markets and business investment, with U.S. consumers bearing the brunt of rising tariff costs.
Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco, says: “The possibility of a stagflationary turn arising from trade policy could prove to be a powerful countercurrent in an otherwise resilient US economy. In our 2025 outlook, we explain how momentum can quickly reverse in today’s data-driven environment, underscoring the need for flexible multi-asset allocation.”
Outlook on the financial markets
Robeco expects US stocks to continue their upward trend, with the S&P 500 reflecting elevated valuations after a year of strong performance. However, market sentiment could change abruptly if macroeconomic scenarios change. That’s why diversified and dynamic portfolio management is important. Robeco’s outlook suggests caution in high-yield bonds, where spreads are tight, while investment-grade press release
Corporate bonds in euros appear more attractive compared to the USA. Looking forward, Robeco expects changing macroeconomic data, U.S. trade policy and global liquidity conditions to impact asset class returns in 2025.
Outlook for sustainable investing
Looking ahead to 2025, Robeco’s Sustainable Investing Outlook highlights the resilience of long-term sustainability trends, despite short-term uncertainties. Ongoing economic challenges may cause some companies and investors to deprioritize sustainability in the near term. However, the overall decarbonization trajectory remains. While support for sustainability initiatives in the US may weaken in the short term under the new administration, tightened ESG regulations and continued commitment to green industries in Europe provide a solid foundation for sustainable investing. Despite some headwinds, momentum towards achieving the global Sustainable Development Goals is expected to continue beyond 2025.
Rachel Whittaker, Head of Sustainable Investment Research at Robeco, comments: “Despite short-term challenges, the transition to a more sustainable global economy remains an important driver of long-term growth. The regulatory and policy environment in Europe remains supportive and forward-looking investors are well positioned to effectively manage short-term uncertainties.”
**What are the three economic scenarios outlined in Robeco’s 2025 outlook?**
## World Today News: A Look at the Economic Outlook for 2025
**Introduction**
Welcome to World Today News! Today we are joined by two experts from Robeco to discuss their 2025 economic outlook, “This is not a landing.” We have Peter van der Welle, Multi-Asset Strategist, and Rachel Whittaker, Head of Sustainable Investment Research. Welcome to both of you.
**Section 1: The Global Economic Landscape**
* **Peter, Robeco describes 2025 as a year of “contradictory signals and complex dynamics.” Could you elaborate on what factors are creating this uncertainty and what are the key contrasts we should be watching for?**
* **Rachel, while the global economy faces headwinds, the article mentions China and Europe “coming out of the trough.” What are the potential drivers of this resurgence and are there any risks that could impede their progress?**
**Section 2: Navigating the Economic Scenarios**
* **Peter, The 2025 outlook outlines three scenarios: a base case, a bull scenario, and a bear scenario. Could you walk us through the key assumptions and potential outcomes for each scenario, and how investors might want to adjust their strategies accordingly?**
* **What are the potential trigger points that could shift us from one scenario to another? Are there any “black swan” events that could significantly disrupt the expected trajectory?**
**Section 3: Financial Market Outlook and Investment Strategies**
* **Peter, Robeco predicts continued upward momentum for US stocks. However, the article also mentions the importance of “diversified and dynamic portfolio management.” What specific strategies might investors consider to navigate the potential volatility and risks outlined in the outlook?**
* **Can you elaborate on the potential opportunities and risks associated with different asset classes, such as high-yield bonds and corporate bonds in euros, in the context of the projected macroeconomic environment?**
**Section 4: The Future of Sustainable Investing**
* **Rachel, the outlook acknowledges both the resilience of long-term sustainability trends and some short-term challenges. What are the key drivers of this ongoing momentum, and are there any specific sectors or industries that you believe present particularly compelling opportunities for sustainable investors?**
* **How might changing policy landscapes, both in the US and Europe, impact the trajectory of sustainable investing in 2025 and beyond ?**
**Conclusion**
Thank you both for sharing your expert insights with us. The 2025 economic landscape presents both opportunities and challenges for investors.
* **For our viewers at home, what are the key takeaways they should keep in mind as they navigate their own financial decisions in the coming year?**
The 2025 outlook paints a nuanced picture of the global economy.
we hope this discussion has provided valuable food for thought.
