The delta variant (also known as the Indian variant) of the coronavirus is quickly becoming dominant in the Netherlands. In three weeks, half of all infections will be with this variant. In about two months, all other variants will be supplanted, according to a PowerPoint presentation by Jaap van Dissel (RIVM).
The presentation (.pdf) with the predictions of the RIVM has already been put online in the run-up to a technical briefing that starts at 4.30 pm in the House of Representatives. Van Dissel will provide an explanation shortly.
The effect of the advance of the variant appears to be not too bad in the short term. The powerpoint presentation shows that, according to current models, hospital admissions will continue to fall this summer and that no “increase in the near future” is foreseen either.
This is due to a combination of, among other things, the rapidly increasing vaccination coverage and the so-called seasonal effect. In warmer weather, people spend more time outside, where the virus has less chance. As far as is known, the current vaccines also protect well against the delta variant, although the protective effect is slightly less pronounced.
More contagious than British variant
Until recently, the share of the delta variant in the Netherlands was small: 2.8 percent in the second week of June. That share will therefore grow sharply, according to the models of the RIVM. It goes to 50 percent by mid-July and about 100 percent by September or October.
The delta variant is much more contagious than the alpha variant (or British variant) that is still dominant in the Netherlands. According to Van Dissel’s presentation, this is an increase of 28 percent.
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