Zurich (awp) – In a global context of inflation and increased risk, the Swiss real estate market is not spared. Access to mortgages could become more complicated.
The Real Estate Risk Index (RERI) rose in the first three months to 3.5 points from 3.3, according to a statement released on Tuesday by financial services provider Moneypark. The barometer is on the threshold of “slightly high risk”, while the upward trend should continue in the coming quarters.
In the first quarter, the prices of single-family houses rose three times faster than those of apartments, registering an increase of 1.88% against 0.49%. The prices of office space are pointing significantly downwards. A sign that the change in lifestyle and work brought about by the coronavirus pandemic “is consolidating as a new normal”.
Indebtedness increased slightly during this period. The average share of mortgages, ie external debt, in relation to total wealth (mortgage volume and own assets) reached around 64%, compared to 61% in the previous quarter. But there are no “significant additional risks”.
Moneypark highlights the risk of a global recession which has increased massively in recent weeks, due to massive inflation in the United States and the European Union, the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the difficulties in supply chains in China. On the capital markets, the aggravation of risks was reflected in a very rapid rise in swap rates of around 100 basis points (10-year swap).
For its part, the Swiss economy experienced a recovery in January and March, with GDP exceeding the pre-pandemic period by 2% before being halted in March with the weakening of exports. Moneypark points out that the expansionary policies of central banks will try to cushion the economic setback. “Access to mortgage financing will be more difficult and more expensive”. It is to be expected that the price gap between the least expensive and the most expensive mortgage will continue to increase.
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