From Thursday, the anticyclone which brought calm weather to France in the middle of the week will fall back on Central Europe under the pressure of a vast Atlantic low pressure system. At the front of this low pressure system, the wind will shift to the south, favoring the rise of humid air near the Mediterranean with rains which will begin between Provence and the Cévennes.
Friday could be a tricky day. Indeed, the Atlantic disturbance will begin to cross France, confronting upwellings of humid and unstable air coming from the Mediterranean. In this context, we must expect an intensification and an extension of the rains to a large south-eastern quarter of the country. Total rainfall between Thursday and Friday could exceed 50 to 70 mm between the south of the Massif Central, Provence, the lower Rhône valley and Languedoc.
New bad weather in the southeast? – © The Weather Channel
From Saturday, significant divergences appear on the behavior of the disturbance. This could plunge and isolate itself as a cold drop over the Balearic Islands, in which case the bad weather would continue next weekend in the south-east of France. This scenario is in the minority, only taken into account by the Canadian and British models.
According to the European model, the American model as well as our METEOCONSULT model, this cold drop could isolate itself on the Gulf of Genoa, in which case, the episode of bad weather would end at the latest on Saturday with more rain and storms between the Alps and Corsica, and the lifting of the mistral and the tramontane between Roussillon and Provence.
Our services will keep you informed daily of the extent of this degradation.
Original article published on La Chaîne Météo
