Ten thousand registrations in less, of which two-thirds of residents in Southern Italy: the collapse of the registrations touniversity in 2020/2021 could be one of the effects of the emergency coronavirus on the world of instructions. To launch the alarm are the estimates of the Svimez, according to which “an assessment of the possible effects of the crisis Covid on enrolment at the University in the next academic year, based on what happened in the previous crisis, it will trigger the alarm, especially with reference to the Mezzogiorno”.
Effect of coronavirus on the university: risk 10 thousand members in less
As what has manifested in the aftermath of the crisis in 2008-2009, and in the event of a worsening of the rates of transitions from school to University to the levels of previous years, the Svimez estimates that the decrease of the registered on a national scale amounts to approximately 9,500 students, of which about 6.300 in Noon and 3.200 for the Centre North.
By 2020 it is estimated that approximately 292.000 mature in the Centre and North, and approximately 197.000 at Noon, it still emphasizes the Svimez. Estimating the impact of the economic crisis on the rate of passage from school to the university, the Svimez shows that the previous crisis has shown a high degree of elasticity of this rate with the weakening of the incomes of the families especially in the south. It is estimated and then a reduction in the rate of continuation of 3.6 points in the south, and 1.5 in the Centre-North. The data on the rate of transitions from school to University, from 1991 to 2020 (in 2019 and 2020 estimated), show how “in the face of the delay that has characterized the ’90s, in the early 2000s, the south was able to match and overcome in 2003, the rate of continuation of the Centre-North, perhaps because of – supports the Svimez – the reform in those years he introduced the 3+2 in the Italian university system. Since then, it has started a slow decline in the rates of continuation exasperated by the crisis in 2008-2009 that has led the south to record the rates of continuation school-University lowest in the euro area as a whole”.
University, the enrolments in previous years
The crisis economic 2008-2009, which dragged until 2013, had led to a collapse of the enrollment in the University, especially in the south, highlights the Svimez: between 2008 and 2013, the rate of transitions from school to University in the south is collapsed by 8.3 percentage points, four times the decrease in the Centre-North (1.6 points). In a five-year period the members have been reduced by more than 20 thousand units in the southern regions. Also in the Centre-North, the crisis had led to a decline in the rate of continuation of studies (-2 points) but the effect of the growth of graduates has not led to a decline in the overall number of members.
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The recovery of the enrolment and transition rates in the period of weak recovery (2013-19) has only allowed a partial recovery for the south, still far from the figures of 2008, unlike the Centre-North is back on the values pre-crisis. According to the most recent (2019) the south has 12,000 registered less than in 2008 and a pass rate of more than 5 percentage points lower. While, the Centre-North has recorded for the whole period an increase of 30,000 registered approximately and an increase of over a percentage point of its rate of passage.