CBOT positions: Concerns about U.S. soybean demand rise, traders adjust positions to welcome USDA’s heavy report
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures fell on Wednesday, giving up gains from the previous session, amid signs of more rain in drought-stricken Brazil and growing concerns about export demand for the U.S. crop. Wheat futures were mostly steady to slightly higher in technical trading on Wednesday as investors adjusted positions ahead of a key monthly report on global supply and demand scheduled for Friday.
As of press time, the U.S. soybean continuous contract rose 0.63% to 1,244.3 cents/bushel, the U.S. wheat continuous contract increased 0.20% to 612.0 cents/bushel, and the U.S. corn continuous contract rose 0.22% to 460.5 cents/bushel.
Let’s look at the specific analysis below.
Wednesday’s closing overview
CBOT March soybean contract SH24 closed down 12 cents at $12.3650 per bushel. The contract pared losses after falling as low as $12.3525 earlier.
The March soybean oil contract BOH24 closed up 0.20 cents at 48.25 cents per pound. The March soybean meal contract SMH24 ended $3.30 lower at $364.30 per short ton.
The settlement price of the March corn contract CH24 rose 0.25 cents to $4.5950 per bushel.
CBOT March wheat WH24 settled up 0.75 cents at $6.1075 per bushel.
Meanwhile, KC March hard red winter wheat KWH24 was last down 2 cents at $6.25 a bushel, and MGEX March spring wheat MWEH24 was last up 1.50 cents at $7.07 a bushel.
Changes in CBOT positions
Trader estimates show that on Wednesday (January 10), commodity funds increased speculative net long positions in wheat, increased speculative net short positions in soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal, and opened long and open short positions in corn. same. In the latest 30 trading days, commodity funds increased their speculative net short positions in soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, and corn, and increased their speculative net long positions in wheat.
The data in the table are traders’ estimates and are not final transaction data. Calculation method: The above net position data = open long contracts – open short contracts, that is, if the data is positive, it means “net long position”, if the data is negative, it corresponds to “net short position”, and 0 means open position. Long and open short positions are the same.
Observation of supply and demand situation
An overview of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils as of Wednesday’s close:
USDA commissioner projects Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean production at 50.5 million metric tons
The report lowered 2022/2023 marketing year (MY) soybean production to 20.5 million metric tons (MMT), still below USDA officials’ expectations as drought caused harvested area and yields to be lower than expected. The 2022/2023 crush volume is revised down to 26 million tons due to reduced exports and crush operating rates in recent months reaching their lowest levels in decades.
The 2023/2024 soybean production forecast is maintained at 50.5 million metric tons, still above USDA officials’ expectations due to recent favorable rainfall during planting.
The stringent economic reforms implemented by Argentina will have a significant impact on the oilseeds industry. These include devaluing the currency by 50% and increasing the export tax on soybeans to 33%.
Two major reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are released one after another
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release weekly export sales data on Thursday. Analysts expect net sales of U.S. old-crop soybeans to be 200,000 to 450,000 metric tons in the week ended January 4 and 0 to 100,000 metric tons in the 2024-2025 crop year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release a quarterly report on U.S. grain stocks and monthly data on global agricultural supply and demand on Friday.
Traders also expect guidance from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly U.S. grain stocks report on Friday, as well as data on how much of the crop U.S. producers may hold on farm.
In terms of logistics and transportation, attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea continue to raise concerns about global trade flows.
2024-01-11 02:15:00
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