Cancer Incidence Shifts: Women Now Face Higher Risk Than Men, especially in Younger age Groups
In a groundbreaking review published by the American Cancer Society, new data reveals a notable shift in cancer incidence trends, with women now facing a higher risk than men, particularly among those younger than 65. While cancer mortality rates have declined through 2022, the burden of cancer is increasingly shifting toward younger adults and women, marking a pivotal change in the landscape of cancer epidemiology.
A Growing Gender Gap in Cancer Incidence
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Central cancer registries have uncovered startling trends. In 2021, cancer incidence rates for women aged 50 to 64 surpassed those of men for the first time, with rates of 832.5 per 100,000 for women compared to 830.6 for men. For women under 50, the disparity is even more pronounced: their incidence rate was 82% higher than men in the same age group (141.1 vs. 77.4 per 100,000). This gap has widened as 2002, when it was 51% higher for women.
One of the most striking findings is the rise in lung cancer incidence among women under 65. In 2021, lung cancer rates were higher in women than men in this age group (15.7 vs.15.4 per 100,000), a phenomenon not seen as the pre-tobacco epidemic era. This shift is attributed to women adopting smoking later than men and being slower to quit, resulting in a slower decline in lung cancer rates among women compared to men.
Long-Term Trends: Men Decline, Women Rise
Cancer incidence rates in men have followed a volatile trajectory. After erratic increases in the early 1990s, rates sharply declined from 2007 to 2013 before stabilizing through 2021. In contrast, women have experienced a steady climb in cancer incidence, rising from 361.2 per 100,000 in 1978 to 443.2 in 2021—a 23% overall increase. This divergence has narrowed the male-to-female cancer incidence ratio from a peak of 1.6 in 1992 to 1.1 in 2021.
Rebecca L. Siegel,MPH,senior scientific director of Cancer surveillance Research at the American Cancer Society,emphasized the implications of these trends: “Progress is lagging in cancer prevention. incidence continues to increase for 6 of the top 10 cancers (breast, prostate, melanoma, uterine corpus, pancreas, and colorectal cancer [in patients younger than 65]), 2 of which primarily affect women. Consequently,the cancer burden is shifting from older to younger adults and from men to women. Middle-aged women now have slightly higher cancer risk than their male counterparts, and young women are almost twice as likely to be diagnosed as young men.”
Projections for 2025: A Sobering Outlook
the review, which analyzed data from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and the CDC’s national Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR), projects approximately 2,041,910 new cancer diagnoses in 2025—equivalent to about 5,600 cases daily. Of these, 988,660 are expected to be in women, including 115,970 lung cancer cases, 59,080 cases of ductal carcinoma in situ, and 107,240 cases of melanoma in situ.
While the lifetime probability of invasive cancer diagnosis is slightly higher for men (39.9% vs. 39.0%), women under 50 face a significantly higher risk (5.9% vs.3.4% for men). For lung or bronchus cancer, the lifetime probability is nearly equal between genders (5.8% for men vs. 5.6% for women), with similar rates among those under 50 and aged 50 to 64.
Disparities in Cancer burden
The review also highlights stark disparities in cancer incidence and mortality. American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) individuals, particularly women, bear the highest cancer mortality rates for cancers of the colorectum, kidney, liver, lung, stomach, and cervix. Black men face the highest prostate cancer mortality risk,while Black women have the highest mortality risks for breast and uterine corpus cancers.
Pediatric and Adolescent Cancer Trends
In 2025, an estimated 9,550 children (aged birth to 14) and 5,140 adolescents (aged 15 to 19) will be diagnosed with cancer, with 1,050 and 600 expected deaths, respectively. While invasive cancer incidence has declined by 0.8% annually in children as 2015, adolescent rates have risen by 0.7% annually, driven by increases in lymphoid leukemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma diagnoses.
Key Takeaways
| Category | Key findings |
|—————————-|———————————————————————————|
| Gender Disparity | Women under 65 now have higher cancer incidence rates than men. |
| Lung Cancer | Higher in women under 65 for the first time since the pre-tobacco era.|
| 2025 Projections | 2,041,910 new cancer cases, with 988,660 in women. |
| Lifetime Probability | Women under 50 have a 5.9% risk vs. 3.4% for men. |
| Disparities | AIAN and Black populations face the highest mortality risks. |
| Pediatric Trends | Declining incidence in children but rising in adolescents. |
A Call to Action
These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted cancer prevention and early detection strategies, particularly for women and younger adults. As the cancer burden continues to shift, addressing disparities and improving access to care will be critical in reducing the impact of this disease.
For more detailed insights, explore the full review published in CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians here.
Headline: Cancer Burden Shifts: A Conversation on Increasing Incidence in Women and Younger Adults
Introduction:
In a groundbreaking review published by the American Cancer Society, we’re seeing a notable shift in cancer incidence trends, with women now facing a higher risk than men, particularly those younger than 65. Join us as we discuss these alarming trends with Dr.marin ide, a prominent oncology specialist and expert in cancer epidemiology.Let’s delve into the growing gender gap in cancer incidence, long-term trends, and projections for the future.
A Growing Gender Gap in Cancer Incidence
World-Today-News: Dr. Ide, the latest data reveals a notable gap in cancer incidence rates between women and men. Can you help us understand this disparity?
Dr. Marin Ide: Certainly. While men still have a higher cancer burden the incidence rates in women have been consistently increasing, and in 2021, we saw women aged 50 to 64 surpass men in cancer incidence. For women under 50, the gap is even more pronounced. this is largely due to increases in breast, thyroid, and uterine corpus cancers in women, while incidence rates for prostate and lung cancers in men have been declining.
WTN: What about lung cancer incidence among women under 65?
Dr. Ide: That’s a striking finding. In 2021, lung cancer rates were higher in women under 65 than in men of the same age group for the first time since the pre-tobacco era. This shift is attributed to women adopting smoking later than men and being slower to quit, resulting in a delayed decline in lung cancer rates among women.
Long-Term Trends: Men Decline, Women Rise
WTN: Can you tell us about the long-term trends in cancer incidence for men and women?
Dr. Ide: Absolutely. Cancer incidence rates in men have followed a volatile trajectory, with sharp increases in the early 1990s followed by a decline from 2007 to 2013. Since then, rates have stabilized. In contrast, women have experienced a steady rise in cancer incidence, with a 23% overall increase from 1978 to 2021. This divergence has narrowed the male-to-female cancer incidence ratio from a peak of 1.6 in 1992 to 1.1 in 2021.
WTN: What are the implications of these trends?
Dr. Ide: These trends highlight the need for targeted cancer prevention strategies. Progress is lagging in cancer prevention,and incidence continues to increase for several of the top 10 cancers,two of which primarily affect women. Consequently, the cancer burden is shifting from older adults to younger ones and from men to women. Middle-aged women now have slightly higher cancer risk than their male counterparts, and young women are almost twice as likely to be diagnosed as young men.
Projections for 2025: A Sobering Outlook
WTN: What do the projections for 2025 tell us about the future of cancer incidence?
Dr. Ide: The projections are sobering. The review estimates approximately 2,041,910 new cancer diagnoses in 2025, equivalent to about 5,600 cases daily. This number includes around 1,185,690 diagnoses in women and 856,210 in men. It’s crucial that we redouble our efforts in cancer prevention, early detection, and treatment to address this increasing burden.
WTN: Dr. Ide, thank you for sharing your insights into these alarming trends and providing valuable context for understanding the shifting landscape of cancer incidence.
Dr. Ide: My pleasure. It’s vital that we continue to raise awareness about these trends and advocate for targeted interventions to reduce the cancer burden among women and younger adults.
