Here we go again: Hospitalizations for COVID-19 have increased in the US since the beginning of July, in a cycle similar to that experienced in the three previous summers.
An updated version of the vaccine against the disease is still months away from being available, so this spike in hospitalizations could be unsettling, but the number of patients is much lower than before.
Here’s a look at what we know:
How bad is the rally?
In the week ending July 29, there were 9,056 hospitalizations for COVID-19, an increase of 12% over the previous week.
But it is a long way from previous peaks, such as the 44,000 weekly hospitalizations at the beginning of January, the almost 45,000 at the end of July 2022, or the 150,000 admissions during the surge caused by the omicron variant in January 2022.
“It’s going up a little bit, but it’s not something we have to worry about,” said Dr. David Dowdy, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Infections are also likely on the rise, but there is little data. Federal authorities ended the public health emergency in May, so the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and many states no longer track the number of positive test results.
Have there been deaths?
Since the beginning of June, between 500 and 600 have died each week. The death toll appears stable this summer, although in the past deaths have risen after hospitalizations.
How are we monitoring the virus?
The amount of COVID-19 virus in wastewater has been increasing since the end of June across the country. Health authorities said they will closely monitor levels in sewage in the coming weeks as people return from summer trips and students return to school.
The highest levels of COVID-19 in sewage concentrations are being found in the Northeast and South of the country, said Cristin Young, an epidemiologist with Biobot Analytics, the CDC’s wastewater monitoring contractor.
“It’s important to remember that concentrations are still pretty low right now,” Young said, adding that they are about 2.5 times lower than they were in the middle of last year.
And while one version of the omicron variant, EG.5, is appearing more frequently, no single variant of the virus is dominant. The variant has been named “eris,” but this is an unofficial nickname and is not used by scientists.
“There are a couple of them that we’re keeping an eye on, but we’re not seeing anything like delta or omicron,” Young said, referring to variants that have sparked previous waves.
And the virus’s mutations don’t necessarily make it more dangerous.
“Just because we have a new subvariant doesn’t mean we’re destined to have an increase in bad results,” Dowdy said.
When will the new vaccine be available?
Officials expect updated COVID-19 vaccines containing a version of the omicron variant, called XBB.1.5, to be available this fall. It’s a major modification of today’s vaccines, which mix the original variant of the coronavirus with the more common omicron subvariants from last year.
It is not yet known when people will be able to start getting vaccinated for what officials hope will be an annual vaccine against COVID-19. Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax are preparing doses of the XBB update, but the US Food and Drug Administration will have to approve each one, and then the CDC will have to issue recommendations for their use.
Dr. Mandy Cohen, the new CDC director, said she hopes people get their COVID-19 vaccines when they go for flu shots, at pharmacies and at work, rather than at vaccination centers like the ones that were installed during the pandemic as part of the emergency response.
“This is going to be our first fall and winter season coming out of the public health emergency, and I think we are all acknowledging that we are living with COVID, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus,” Cohen told The Associated Press last week. “But the good news is that we have more tools than ever before.”
2023-08-09 00:29:02
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