According to political history professor Markku Jokisipilä, it is too early to assess how the governing parties will fare in the future parliamentary elections. However, it is safe to bet that the pension debate will hardly increase the support of the governing parties.
According to Finance Minister Riikka Purra (ps), pension cuts could be implemented, for example, by freezing the indices. TIINA SOMERPURO
The Treasury minister Riikka Purra (ps) said in an interview with Iltalehti on Saturday, April 6, that the government may also cut pensions. Professor of Political History Markku Jokispilän according to it, it is safe to bet that cutting pensions will not at least increase the support of the major government parties.
– After all, we have had a situation for a long time that pensions are a sacred matter that has been outside of adjustment discussions. It is an interestingly special discussion that Purra quite openly shares these thoughts and shares them in public, says Jokisipilä.
On April 3, the business delegation EVA published its proposals on pension cuts and raising the retirement age. According to Jokisipilä, everyone knows that raising the retirement age is coming.
– It’s coming at some point. It’s a must. But then the normal political self-preservation instinct is not to have that discussion. Now there is a proactive discussion in a special way.
Last fall, among other things, the Minister of Social Security Sanni Grahn-Laasonen (cok) said, according to HS, that according to the government’s policy, pensions are excluded from the cuts. As the amount of adaptation needs increased, the tone of the conversation has changed.
– It has been said that the framework crisis is becoming “government negotiations 2.0”, when there are such drastic and difficult decisions to be made, Jokisipilä estimates.
According to Jokisipilä, the support of the largest left-wing party could be much higher than 21.7 percent. Vesa-Matti Wrong
Are senior voters being cheated?
According to Åbo Akademi’s research, it was retired men who actively voted for the coalition. Jokisipilä points out that it is rarely the case that any government would tell in advance what the government’s program will contain.
– In terms of voter consumer protection, it is fair to inform in advance about the cutting measures affecting the income level. But in this case, the voter must be able to relate to this situation in such a way that when situations and assessments change, it is a smart policy to update views and dig out new tools from the toolkit.
Jokisipilä points out that according to the information that has become public, there are tensions between the government groups precisely because of the pension cuts.
Goodbye to the right-wing government?
On Friday, April 5, Yle published a party poll conducted by Taloustikkumas, in which SDP had come out on top with 21.7 percent support. However, according to Jokisipilä, it is too early to assess whether the current right-wing government will continue for another term.
– A lot of incidents are about to happen. Perhaps this is the behavior of the government according to the philosopher Niccolò Machiavelli, that the ruler should do unpleasant things as soon as possible after coming to power. It remains to be seen what will follow from all this. If it were to happen that the government has correctly calculated the employment effects of the reforms and 75,000–100,000 new jobs are created for us, then the situation will look completely new.
Member of Parliament of the Coalition Ville Valkonen said in the Politiikan järlöylyt podcast that SDP’s rise to number one means that the government has to hurry up the promotion of key reforms. According to Jokisipilä, Valkonen’s comments are exceptional.
– In general, the government parties’ attitude to polls is that new readings come every month, and the real Gallup is every four years, when we go to the polls. Of course, the parties follow the readings, but if the contents were to be decided according to support polls, it would not work that way.
Ville Valkonen would like to speed up the government’s reforms, as SDP came first in the party poll published by Yle. OUTI LAKE
A counterattack by left-wing parties
Is it the case that if the left-wing parties come to power next, the current government’s reforms will be dismantled with a heavy hand?
– Of course, what will happen in the next parliamentary elections is shrouded in mystery. When you think about what normally happens when the government changes, as a rule, the governments have not started to significantly dismantle the legislation of their predecessors. Of course, laws that have been found to have failed have been repealed.
According to Jokisipilä, it is not customary to dismantle the legislation of predecessors for ideological reasons.
– The opposition may secretly be quite satisfied with some of the government’s decisions when such painful decisions are made. And if it still happens that the government collapses its own support with these reforms, it will be a win-win situation for the opposition.
“Risk-prone soil”
In general, interventions in the pension security level and raising the retirement age have caused a lot of noise among the voters.
– From the point of view of maintaining political support, they are really risky ground, because it affects a large number of people. In addition, the idea of a pension on average is that it has already been financed and earned by working, so it causes a lot of emotions.
Jokisipilä has noted that there is now a “different mood” in politics. The political self-preservation instinct has been put on the shelf and even drastic issues are openly considered.
– This is quite exceptional.
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