From Christian Kirchner
The demand for corporate and real estate loans is still high in this country – but banks and savings banks have recently tightened their allocation guidelines and specific credit conditions for the third quarter in a row. This is the result of the quarterly “Bank Lending Survey” published yesterday by the ECB and the Bundesbank. Another result: For the next three months, the banks are planning further streamlining in all areas surveyed.
This confirms a suspicion that the Bundesbank had voiced at the beginning of the week: The combination of increasing risk provisioning and ever increasing earnings pressure could lead to banks and savings banks reducing their credit supply in the Corona crisis of all places. This development cannot be continued with certainty, as the central banks and governments are taking countermeasures in monetary and fiscal policy. The “Bank Lending Survey” shows very clearly that commercial banks are currently exercising caution. Especially since: The surveys took place between September 21 and October 6 – so they should not have been significantly influenced by the recent worsening of the infection rate.
The most important results in graphic form:
(Methodological note: The values given are net balances. That means: The difference between the sum of “Demand increased significantly” and “Demand increased slightly” and the sum of “Demand decreased slightly” and “Demand decreased significantly” is measured. One value of more than 33 shows: The majority of banks report increased demand. The same applies to guidelines: the higher the value, the more banks report a tightening and vice versa)
1.) Companies are still very much asking for loans …
2.) … and real estate buyers (after a short break) now again
3.) The banks tighten the guidelines for corporate and real estate loans …
4.) … and the proportion of loans that are completely rejected continues to climb
5.) And there is still no real optimism regarding future real estate loan demand. It has been worse, however.
–
