Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Central Statistical Agency (BPS) will announce Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data tomorrow, Monday (7/11/2022), at 11:00 WIB.
Indonesia’s economic growth in the third quarter of 2022 is expected to reach 5.60% (year over year / yy), higher than the second quarter of 2022 which reached 5.44%.
Meanwhile, the market consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia from 14 institutions also estimates that economic growth will reach 1.66% compared to the previous quarter (quarter to quarter / qq).
Previously, the Ministry of Finance had estimated that Indonesia’s economic growth in the third quarter of 2022 would reach 5.7%. Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF) head Febrio Kacaribu explained that economic growth in the third quarter of 2022 will be higher than the second quarter of 2022, which has grown to 5.44% (year over year / year over year).
“This third quarter, we see that the opportunity is actually even stronger than in the second quarter of 2022. So, our latest figure is 5.7% (y / y). We will see that this will be reflected in what BPS announced “, explained Febrio, quoted from Antara Sunday (11/06/2022).
Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia (BI) is optimistic that economic growth in the third quarter of 2022 will grow by more than 5.5%.
“We are still optimistic that economic growth will be over 5.5% year-on-year. Various indicators show positive developments,” Perry said.
This resilience is reflected in the real sales index (IPR), consumer confidence index (IKK), credit growth and gross fixed investment (PMTB) or investment indicators.
Referring to Bank Indonesia data, the real sales index grew (y / y) by 6.2% in July, 4.9% in August and 5.5% in September. In the period July-September 2021, however, it was negative.
The consumer confidence index is above 117 in the July-September 2022 period. Conversely, the index is below 100 (pessimistic) in the July-September 2021 period.
Regarding investments, the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) recorded growth in investment realization reaching 42.1% (year over year) to Rp 307.8 trillion in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, the Bank Indonesia Banking Survey estimates that new lending in the third quarter of 2022 will grow positively. This is in line with the new weighted net balance (WNB) of 88.1%.
Meanwhile, Bank Mandiri economist Faisal Rachman revealed that economic growth will be driven by rising public demand amid easing mobility and increasing commercial activity, as evidenced by the manufacturing PMI, as well as a low calculation basis in the third quarter of 2022.
However, Faisal added that the economic quarter will weaken due to the spike in inflation following the increase in subsidized fuel prices.
If the Indonesian economy survives into the third quarter of 2022, what about the fourth quarter of 2022?
The head of the fiscal analysis division, Center for Macroeconomic Policy BKF Abdurrahman explained that, on a seasonal basis, economic activity in the country seen on a quarterly basis (QtQ) in the fourth quarter usually grows slowly.
“The fourth quarter is usually a constant QtQ of GDP (gross domestic product) which is usually negative. This means there is a seasonal pattern that reflects a slowdown in the fourth quarter for the Indonesian economy,” Abdurrahman told CNBC. Indonesia on Friday (4/11/2022).
The reason is that the country’s economy is currently in a phase of returning to normal before the Covid-19 pandemic, so that the model of economic growth will also return to normal.
“If we look at the QtQ growth model, it is always like this under normal conditions. So that in the fourth quarter our economy will slow down compared to the third,” Abdurrahman explained.
However, the economic slowdown that is expected to occur in the fourth quarter of 2022 will always be mitigated by the government. As has always been done before.
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