1. Transactions are still numerous
The real estate sector has not collapsed in the Lyon region. The year 2020 ends with a number of transactions in the old down “only” 9%. “The real estate crisis that some presided over for the fall did not take place,” comments Nicolas Bouscasse, president of Fnaim du Rhône.
Over the last twelve months, 25,618 housing sales were recorded in the Rhône against 28,276 in 2019, which was a record year. However, let us take these figures with a grain of salt since they list transactions from September 2019 to September 2020. The effects of the crisis could appear in the statistics over twelve months sliding from March 2021.
However, these figures show a constant in Lyon: the demand for housing is still strong since this level of transactions is reached when real estate agents have not been able to provide visits for a third of the year.
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2. The forecasts for 2021
Those who are already owners can sleep soundly. But the buyers, them, will have to have a very solid financing file. The increase in prices continues according to the latest figures from the Notaries of France. In the Rhône: + 8.4% for an old apartment and + 5.6% for an old house. In the metropolis of Lyon: + 9.2% for an old apartment and + 8% for an old house.
“Overall, the year 2020 ends rather not too badly”, tempers Me Frédéric Aumont, the president of the Rhône Chamber of Notaries. “As long as the state supports the economy, confidence in the real estate market is preserved. “For 2021, real estate professionals do not risk taking the bets. Me Aumont is however certain of one thing: “in the worst case scenario, prices will stabilize, but they will not fall. “
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3. A still tense real estate market
Further price increases in the Lyon region in 2021 seem inevitable.
On the one hand, the metropolis gains nearly 15,000 new inhabitants per year and its economy remains one of the most efficient in France, despite the crisis.
On the other hand, the tension of the real estate market is maximum: the demand is clearly higher than the supply. This was already the case before Covid-19 but it’s even worse now. In the old, “many owners play the card of caution by not putting their property on sale unless they have been able to buy”, observes Anne de Planchard, vice-president of Fnaim du Rhône.
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4. Even rarer new housing
In new buildings, we’ve been talking about a shortage in Lyon for years… “While 8,000 homes should be built per year, we are finishing 2020 with barely 3,000 sales of apartments that will be built from 2021. This means that new construction will be at its lowest again in 2021 ”, warns Hervé Simon, president of the FPI Lyon (federation of real estate developers).
Consequence: new housing is rarer and therefore more expensive, which has the effect of pushing up market prices, including in the old and on the outskirts.
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5. Some Concerns About Home Loans
Real estate seems to be resisting Covid-19 in the Lyon region but its performance could be tarnished by the allocation of mortgage loans. Admittedly, the rates remain very low at 1.25 – 1.30%. But file refusals are increasing: 15% in September-October, against 5.5% last year according to Empruntis.
In question, the tightening of borrowing conditions imposed at the end of 2019 by the High Council of Financial Stability. “These measures predate the crisis, but it has reinforced loan refusals, including on qualitative files”, observes Me Frédéric Aumont.
“The rates are low, great. But if they do not serve anyone, it is useless, ”worries Nicolas Bouscasse. “Too many file refusals risk upsetting market sales levels in 2021.”
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