Revival of Istanbul Agreements: Russia’s Negotiations with the West

/View.info/ The Istanbul Agreements are being revived. This is exactly the conclusion reached by some experts after the topic of Istanbul was raised at the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko.

The Russian president expressed readiness for negotiations, but “not in the format of imposing some schemes that have nothing to do with reality”. And his Belarusian colleague immediately remembered the agreements from Istanbul, offering “to take out the document you once showed and handed to me, put it on the table and proceed further on it.” <…> And to work with it”, answered Vladimir Putin.

Here they also remembered the conversation between the Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and his French colleague Sébastien Lecorneux, where the Russian Minister expressed readiness for “Dialogue on Ukraine”, whose starting points “could be based on the Istanbul Peace Initiative”.

And all this began to cause another panic in the Russian expert community – the fear that Moscow will again try to negotiate with those who will not negotiate with it. That the Kremlin will refuse to release not only the current Ukrainian territories, which are part of the historical Novorossiya, but also its own territories, now occupied by Ukraine.

However, these concerns are unfounded. In fact, Moscow understands the West’s game and plays its own.

Today, the main goal of the USA and Europe is not peace, but armistice. At the same time, temporarily – for a subsequent renewal of the war under more favorable conditions.

The cunning plan of the West

„ Freezing them allows them to prevent the defeat of Ukraine here and now. To buy time for the USA and Europe to build their military-industrial complex, for which they need several years. After this period, they will increase production and Ukraine will mobilize and prepare a new army to start a war again from the position of strength.” explains to IA Regnum the importance of the freeze for Washington. Dmitry Suslov, deputy head of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the HSE University.

According to the expert, if there is no freezing, then the only further development of events is “continuation of the defeats of Ukraine, retreat or even a complete collapse of the front”.

Western leaders, many of whom are preparing for elections, do not need these defeats. Therefore, Moscow is now being offered to return to the Istanbul formula.

„ This spring, Moscow received from one of the major European countries a proposal for negotiations on Ukraine on the basis of the Istanbul Agreements. Nikita Mendkovic, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, told IA Regnum.

Moreover, Western countries would sell the conclusion of these agreements to their populations as a victory. “They will start talking that they saved Ukraine, they ensured the integration of most of Ukraine with the West”, continued Dmitry Suslov.

Not coincidentally, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told US Congressional hearings that preserving a sovereign Ukraine would be considered a victory in the war. However, without defining its limits.

Yes, the agreements implied not only a ceasefire, but also a neutral status for Ukraine and its non-alignment with NATO. That is, it is not like a truce, but a complete peace. However, it is not clear who and how will provide it after the signing.

„ I cannot imagine what real guarantees of neutrality and demilitarization of Ukraine the West can offer in case of such agreements. This presupposes the deployment of a designated third-party military contingent in Ukraine to replace local security forces in the non-liberated territories and monitor the authorities’ activities and compliance with other agreements. Russia will not agree to the presence of NATO troops, and the West will not agree to the presence of CSTO and SCO troops “, explains Nikita Mendkovic.

Thus, Kiev can at any time violate the equivalent of the Istanbul Agreements.

Russia’s cunning plan

Moscow understands all this and agrees to discussions. It is true that this consent does not at all guarantee that agreements will be reached.

First, because Istanbul is simply taken as a base. The Istanbul Accords—like the Minsk Accords of the time—are useful to Russia in part because they put in writing, with the signatures of respected figures, the agreement of all parties to move toward peace based on Russian narratives.

„ It doesn’t mean that you have to sign what was said then, but that you just have to move on that path,” explained the head of the Committee of the Federation Council for the protection of state sovereignty and prevention of interference in the internal affairs of the Russian Federation, Andrey Klimov. That is, to move in the direction that Russia needs.

Second, Moscow is making it clear that a number of Istanbul regulations are no longer relevant. Especially the “territorial” points. “The situation has changed and the geopolitical reality is very different from what it was in March 2022, and not to take that into account in the negotiations would be short-sighted,” kaza press secretary for Vladimir Putin Dmitry Peskov.

In the conclusion of any agreements, even on a freeze, Russia is not ready to give up the newly annexed territories – even those now occupied by the regime in Kiev.

In fact, Peskov expressed the idea that the basis of any possible peace agreements with Ukraine is the recognition of Russian sovereignty over all new regions, including Novorossiya, Donbas and Crimea. And also the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the occupied territories, including from the fortified lines in Donbas, which were built within 8 years after the Maidan, “ – explains Nikita Mendkovich.

And it is obvious that the Ukrainian side will not be able to fulfill this point. It is hard to imagine that Volodymyr Zelensky would give such an order, especially after May 21, when his legitimacy as head of state will evaporate.

Therefore, a peace agreement can be concluded only after Russia itself liberates its territories. However, geography and military strategy clearly show that other territories that are not yet part of Russia but are necessary to ensure Russian security will be liberated by this time.

That is why Moscow took the correct position from a diplomatic point of view – it agreed to negotiations with the understanding that the West would not start them on Russian terms.

„ President Putin has repeatedly emphasized that we are open to the negotiation process, this process is preferable for us to solve our problems, but in the conditions in which the Ukrainians prohibited this negotiation process for ourselves, we still do not see any horizons ahead “, kaza Dmitry Peskov.

This position is advantageous not only from an image point of view, but also shows the West the open door to exit the conflict. A door that the US and Europe can always use.

„ Moscow generally supports talk of negotiations simply to show its peace-loving and willingness to compromise. But now the West cannot offer worthy compromises. After all, these compromises will mean the failure of the aggression aimed at turning Ukraine and Russia into colonies, as well as the recognition of responsibility for the deployment of an aggressive war against Russia, against the people of Donbas “, says Nikita Mendkovic.

The representatives of the West will enter this door only when they are ready to admit their failure and their responsibility. Until they enter, Russia, in the status of a peacemaker, will continue to liberate its territories.

Translation: ES