Review of reducing British routes to’variant corona’… International flight demand recovery’black’

With the outbreak of the Corona 19 virus variant in the UK, it is expected that flights to the UK will be reduced in Korea, while countries have locked the door. An analysis suggests that the recovery period for international air demand may be delayed if the variant corona spreads while minimizing long-distance operations in the aftermath of Corona 19.

According to the aviation industry on the 23rd, the quarantine authorities received an Aviation Notice (NOTAM) that European countries are reducing flights departing from the UK due to a variant corona from the UK, and are considering whether to maintain or reduce UK routes in Korea.

It is known that the coronavirus from the UK is 70% stronger than the existing virus, and more than 60% of confirmed cases in London are infected with the virus.

Accordingly, the UK raised the level of response to the fourth stage due to the emergence of the coronavirus, and began an emergency blockade, while neighboring countries such as France, Switzerland and Germany, as well as Hong Kong, Canada, and India, also banned the entry of flights from the UK.

In Korea, Korean Air and Asiana Airlines currently operate the Incheon-London route on a schedule of three times a week and once a week, respectively.

However, there is a high possibility that the operation will be suspended or reduced sooner or later depending on the review result of the quarantine authorities. Previously, British Airways, a British national airline, stopped the route between London and Incheon on the 17th.

The problem is that the variant corona appears in other countries as well, which can adversely affect international flights around the world. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in addition to the UK, one case occurred in the Netherlands, Australia and Italy, including nine cases in Denmark.

If the current situation spreads, the recovery period for international passenger demand, which has plummeted due to the Corona 19 pandemic, will inevitably be delayed. Already since last March, the number of international passengers by domestic airlines has been declining at the high 90% level.

In fact, as a result of analyzing the status of international flights in the second week of December compared to the winter season of last year, the European region has decreased in size from 23 routes last year to 9 routes. In the case of the United States, it has minimized operations from 21 routes to 14 routes.

Meanwhile, expectations for vaccine development are rising recently, but the industry expects passenger demand to recover as soon as possible, considering the commercial period, to gradually appear in the second half of next year.

Park Sung-bong, a researcher at Hana Financial Investment, said, “Considering the current vaccine production capacity and safety, full-fledged domestic vaccination will be possible as early as in the second quarter of next year or in the second half of next year,” he said. “From then on, international passenger demand will gradually turn into a recovery trend.” said.

As there is no room for improvement in earnings, airlines are looking for a way out in various ways. Korean Air and Asiana Airlines are expanding their cargo business, including vaccine transportation, waiting for passenger demand to recover from the supply of vaccines. Already earlier this month, Korean Air started shipping raw materials for the Corona 19 vaccine produced in Europe.

On the other hand, low-cost airlines (LCCs), which have an absolute proportion of passenger sales, have no choice but to endure until the corona risk is resolved.

An official in the aviation industry said, “LCCs are also advancing into the cargo industry in recent years, but the market size is so small that it is difficult to make a profit,” said an official from the airline industry. “In the end, if the aviation industry is to survive, the proportion of international flights must increase, if not as before.”

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