The polls did not lie about the order of arrival… but the gaps are much larger! While they were calibrated in a pocket square (only 2% in a poll on June 8), Xavier Bertrand (outgoing, right, ex-LR) is largely ahead of Sébastien Chenu (Rassemblement National): between 42 and 44% against 24%! Karima Delli for the union of the left (PS, EELV, PC, LFI) is at 18%.
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A boulevard for Xavier Bertrand
With five ministers in the running in Hauts-de-France, LREM and its head of the list Laurent Pietraszewski hoped to exceed 10% to be able to withdraw by calling for Xavier Bertrand to vote in order to weaken him in his future presidential clash against Emmanuel Macron. With only 8% to 9%, the list does not even qualify for the second round.
Result: even with a Karima Delli who announced to stay in the second round so that the left returns to the regional hemicycle, Xavier Bertrand does not need anyone to win next Sunday and therefore seems quiet unless an exceptional and improbable renewal of mobilization.
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The duel continues with Valérie Pécresse and Laurent Wauquiez
Candidate for re-election, the president of Hauts-de-France is also one of the contenders for the Elysee Palace for 2022. These Regionals, particularly nationalized, allow for the first time to calibrate its popularity and its dynamics against its potential right-wing rivals who are also regional presidents, Valérie Pécresse first place and Laurent Wauquiez to a lesser extent.
However, the two passed their first exam on Sunday, the president of Ile-de-France relegating her first regional opponent to more than 20 points, that of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes ahead of her first pursuer by 30 points … The distance match will therefore continue in the second round, hence the importance for Xavier Bertrand to obtain the best possible score to afford the most advantageous dynamic for the future.
In the departments, can the RN confirm in the second round?
According to the first results, the National Rally is experiencing a decline compared to 2015. If it is in the lead in the Aisne (32%) and Pas-de-Calais (27%), it is second in the Somme and the ‘Oise where the outgoing majorities seem able to keep the departments next Sunday. At the time of this writing, the partial results of the North put the Right and RN in a pocket handkerchief around 25%.
The RN who saw the election of Marine Le Pen in a canton of Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais), should be present in a number of duels in the second round. Not sure that this is enough to significantly increase the number of cantons detained (4 in the Aisne, 6 in the Pas-de-Calais, 1 in the Somme, 2 in the Oise). The context is less buoyant in 2021 and the results of the regional election show the limits of the far-right party. Sunday 27, the Republican front should again block the departments.
In the North, will the future president perhaps be elected?
With 2,600,000 inhabitants and a budget of 3.3 billion euros, the Department of the North is a big machine. Promised to succeed Jean-René Lecerf, the president who did not stand for re-election, Christian Poiret took the lead in his canton, but was only 2% ahead of his socialist opponent, the mayor of Douai, Frédéric Chéreau ( 35.36% against 33.58%).
The duel will be particularly watched next Sunday especially as two other heavyweights of the right who appeared in the North and are not there to make up the figures, have negotiated their first round: the Minister of the Interior LREM, Gérald Darmanin in Tourcoing and especially the vice-president of the Senate, Valérie Létard (UDI), in Valenciennes.
What participation next Sunday?
With 67% abstention, the regional and departmental ones did not enthrall the crowds in Hauts-de-France. What will happen next Sunday? Could the presence of the National Rally in the second round in a number of cantons lead to a surge in participation? The stake between the two rounds for qualified candidates is now to mobilize the abstainers.
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