China is an opportunity, not a “risk”. The real risk that the international community should be alert to and jointly resist is to promote “de-Sinicization” in the name of “de-risking”
Recently, “de-risking” is replacing “decoupling” and has become a new rhetoric used by some Western politicians when talking about economic relations with China. It is used to beautify and package a series of negative policies aimed at “de-sinicization”. The so-called “de-risking” essentially politicizes and ideologyizes economic and trade issues, violates economic laws, disrupts the security and stability of global industrial chains and supply chains, and ultimately hinders the recovery process of the world economy.
(one)
“‘De-risking’ may be smoother than ‘decoupling’.” The New York Times quote.
The previous U.S. government’s high-profile “decoupling theory” has proved to be unrealistic and utopian. Although the current U.S. government claims that it “has no intention of containing and suppressing China,” its attempt to interfere with and disrupt China-U.S. economic ties through political means has not changed. With the “decoupling theory” unrealistic and unpopular, some people in the United States are eager to find new rhetoric. From “precise decoupling” to “small courtyard and high wall”, from “increasing supply chain resilience” to “supply chain diversification”, from “near shore outsourcing” to “friendly shore outsourcing”, the projects are constantly being innovated.
The qualifier “not pursuing ‘decoupling'” was added to “de-risking” in order to distance itself from the “decoupling theory” and increase confusion. However, the so-called “de-risking” is just old wine in new bottles. First of all, the specific policy direction of “de-risking” is still the old-fashioned technology blockade, investment review, and supply chain transfer. In a policy speech not long ago, a senior U.S. government official talked about “pursuing ‘de-risking’ and ‘diversification’ rather than ‘decoupling'”, while threatening to use “‘small courtyards and high walls’ to protect our basic technologies. “. Secondly, the real purpose of “de-risking” is still to contain and suppress China and serve the current US government’s wrong China policy. The U.S. “Foreign Affairs” magazine made it clear: The U.S. pushes for “de-risking”, which is actually to limit China’s capabilities in strategic areas related to national security, limit China’s position in key raw materials and their processing, and limit the Chinese market in worldwide impact.
Today in the 21st century, interdependence among countries is the norm, and interdependence cannot be simply equated with insecurity. Although the “de-risking” argument is “smooth”, it cannot solve the dilemma that the United States is currently facing in dealing with its economic relations with China: on the one hand, it realizes that “decoupling” will harm its own interests and is unrealistic; The obsession with the “imaginary enemy” is changing the way to “decoupling”. Such a contradictory mentality will only make the United States continue to circle in a self-made siege.
(two)
Free trade, division of labor and cooperation are objective requirements for the development of social productive forces, and the formation and development of international industrial and supply chains are the result of economic globalization and market economy. Under the tide of economic globalization, countries have strengthened division of labor and cooperation, bringing about common development.
China is an opportunity, not a “risk”. China is the world’s second largest economy, the largest manufacturing country, and the largest trader in goods. It is the main trading partner of more than 140 countries and regions around the world, and continues to provide strong impetus for world economic growth. The “World Opening Report 2022” shows that China has made progress in adhering to a high level of opening up to the outside world, and its opening index has continued to increase, becoming an important force in promoting economic globalization. Gideon Rahman, chief international affairs commentator of the British “Financial Times”, believes that the West’s “de-risking” of China is itself a huge risk.
The political manipulation of “de-risking” undermines the stability of the global industrial and supply chains and hinders global technological progress and economic development. The real risk that the international community should be alert to and jointly resist is to promote “de-Sinicization” in the name of “de-risking”. Pierre-Olivier Gurancha, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the trend of “de-risking” may cause countries to turn inward at the expense of global growth. “The danger is that the global economy may fragment into some blocs. “. Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong pointed out that the voice of “de-risking” against China will also lead to a more fragmented and “decoupled” world economy. “A fragmented global economy will split the world into competing regional blocs.”
One of the purposes of the U.S. hype about “de-risking” is to confuse allies and create a “small circle” in the economic field to contain and suppress China. However, U.S. allies remain sober and vigilant against the damage that such political calculations will cause to their own interests. According to a poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations not long ago in 11 EU member states, 43% of the respondents considered China a “partner” and more respondents believed that cooperation with China would bring more opportunities than Respondents that cooperation with China poses more risks. The German Economic Asia-Pacific Committee issued a report on the issue of economic relations with China, arguing that “the diversification strategy cannot rely on withdrawing from the Chinese market.” Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto said bluntly that European countries should have a more objective view of China, and Europe’s insistence on seeking “decoupling” or “removing risks” from China is tantamount to “suicide”.
(three)
Failure to cooperate is the greatest risk, and failure to develop is the greatest insecurity.
In the context of increasing instability and uncertainty facing the world, all parties have their own security concerns. However, generalizing national security and using it as an excuse to promote protectionism and contain and suppress other countries will only amplify the risks and cause more and bigger problems.
Economic globalization is a historical trend, and its development trend has never changed. At present, the accelerated development of new technologies represented by digital technology and artificial intelligence has created more favorable conditions for economic globalization. The world should not and cannot return to a state of isolation and isolation. “Don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater. Don’t throw out the window of economic globalization that makes us all better.” The words of Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund, express the commonality of many countries. voice. Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, also believes that the world economy should not be fragmented, “decoupling” will damage the development of the global economy, and unilateralism and protectionism go against the trend of globalization.
To deal with difficulties and challenges, cooperation is the only way out, and it is also the best way. All countries should follow the historical trend, further build consensus on development, unswervingly build an open world economy, resolutely oppose the politicization of economic and trade issues, and jointly maintain the stability and smoothness of the global industrial and supply chains, so that the fruits of economic globalization can benefit different countries more equitably. different people. Specific issues that affect the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains need to be analyzed in detail, and all parties can fully prevent and respond through consultation and cooperation.
At present, the recovery of the world economy is difficult. What all countries really need is to use an open mind, open action, and open joint efforts to work together to overcome difficulties and jointly cultivate new momentum for global development. Engaging in “decoupling and breaking chains” in the name of “removing risks” will only lead to the loss of opportunities, cooperation, stability and development, and will only create economic fragmentation and drag down the development of the world economy.
“People’s Daily” (version 15, July 5, 2023)
(Editors in charge: Wei Jia, Bai Yu)
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2023-07-04 21:54:00
