How likely is it that countries like China, the United States and Turkey will attack Russia to help Ukraine in the future? Small, experts say.
When Ukraine and Russia met for talks in Istanbul on Tuesday, Ukraine put forward a completely new proposal:
To become a neutral state, as Russia demands, they will have a guarantee of security in exchange. Those who will be responsible for this guarantee are a number of countries. Ukraine wants the United States, China, France, Britain as representatives of the UN Security Council. In addition, they have mentioned countries such as Germany, Poland, Turkey and Israel.
They require that the guarantee be at least as strong as NATO’s collective security guarantee (also known as Article 5). This means that these countries must commit themselves to defending Ukraine militarily if they are attacked.
– The question is how credible such a guarantee is, says Arne Bård Dalhaug to Aftenposten.
The retired lieutenant general was previously Norway’s representative on NATO’s military committee and head of NATO Defense College.
One must imagine that these countries will be willing to send forces to Ukraine if Russia attacks. You hear right away that it is unlikely, Dalhaug thinks.
– “Worthless” militarily
He believes the only country on the list that is capable of being a credible guarantor is the United States.
– But when NATO has not been willing to get involved in the ongoing war, it is very difficult to imagine that it will happen, he says.
The other countries that are listed, he thinks are more or less “worthless” militarily. Either they are too weak militarily, or too closely linked to Russia, such as Turkey and China.
– Why does Ukraine want exactly these eight countries?
– We do not know if other countries have been mentioned and. We have limited information. What is conceivable is that this is a country Russia will be able to accept. But precisely because Russia can accept them, such an agreement is worthless, Dalhaug believes.
He believes that the requirement for a security guarantee must first and foremost be seen as an attempt at a negotiated approach.
A way out of the war
NUPI researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski also believes that the claim must first and foremost be seen as an attempt to find a way out of the bloodshed.
– This is more about the current situation than expecting that in ten years Ukraine will receive help from all these countries, he says.
Godzimirski compares the desire to taking out insurance. One hopes one will never need it.
– One enters into such a guarantee with the hope that the world will change in a positive direction, he says.
– But the best security guarantee for Ukraine would have been if Russia had a leader who did not have as evil intentions as the current one, Godzimirski adds.
He points out that Ukraine has burned itself on entering into a similar security guarantee with Russia. In 1994, Russia and other nuclear powers provided something similar to a guarantee that the country would give up its nuclear weapons.
– Therefore, it is very important that Ukraine is allowed to retain its own deterrent force. They have shown during these five weeks that they are willing to sacrifice many lives on the altar of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Ukraine has strengthened its negotiating position because it has given Russia such a hard time, he says.
Godzimirski says it is so far not known how the countries that have been pointed out as guarantors have reacted to the proposal.
– But it was mentioned that Poland should have agreed to it, he says.
EU power more important
Godzimirski believes Ukraine will achieve a more important security guarantee if it becomes a member of the EU. Not primarily because of the EU’s military power, but because the union has a lot of power in other areas.
– It is about economic power, regulatory power and normative power. When these work together, they can be almost as strong as military power, he says.
He points out that the EU is an organization with 500 million inhabitants, which together have large financial muscles. The EU is also the world’s largest importer of energy.
– They can use that power to influence the choices of other states. Like when they now want to stop the import of gas and oil from Russia, and impose sanctions. It is a type of “economic warfare” and a huge problem for Russia, he says.
He believes that Russia has underestimated the power of EU membership by first and foremost being concerned with keeping Ukraine out of NATO.
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