Photo: AFP/ SCANPIX/ LETA
We should expect the prolongation of the war in Ukraine, which will be accompanied by Russia’s efforts to achieve some kind of truce, said Mārcis Balodis, a researcher at the Eastern European Policy Research Center, to the LETA agency.
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According to him, in the future we should take into account that Russia does not lack resources. It is capable of producing ammunition and firearms, but while the more valuable, more advanced weapons are actively used, they are not produced in large quantities.
“Russia has many resources, but their value and application on the battlefield depends on how they are integrated. So far, there has been a high level of political interference on the part of Russia, which leads to inefficient use of resources,” said a researcher at the Center for Eastern European Policy Studies.
Dove emphasized that it is likely that Russia will continue its attacks on the civilian and strategic infrastructure of Ukraine. This could be a fundamental element in Russia’s war – attempts to melt both Ukraine and Western countries.
Also, in the opinion of the researcher, Russia will look for ways to influence the societies of Western countries in order to reduce support for Ukraine. These will be attempts to bring about political changes, so that Ukraine loses supporters and support gradually begins to dry up. This would allow Russia to either successfully attack, or to make the war gradually forget and enter a “frozen” phase, as was the case in Donbass until February of last year.
Director of the Center for Security and Strategic Research Tom Rostock, speaking about the further course of the war, noted that the cautiously optimistic scenario from the Ukrainian side would be that Russia would try to “throw” more and more people into the war, as Ukraine would have an advantage in terms of training, equipment and weapon systems. .
He pointed out that it should be seen how well Russia will manage to organize the economy to support the war, how much ammunition they will manage to produce, how they will manage to replace the lost tanks and armored vehicles. Rostok emphasized that it is not yet possible to know how this could be successful for Russia.
“A desperate move could be another nuclear scare, which Russia regularly does. The use of nuclear weapons in combat conditions could backfire on Russia, as it would find itself in even greater international isolation.
Russia could try to more actively threaten various weak points of the Western countries, because currently the Western countries are sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, while at the same time there is a position that NATO members do not participate in the conflict,” said Rostock.
According to him, Russia could try to actively threaten supply routes, for example, if military equipment is transported by ship from the United States to Europe.
Also, Russia could try to threaten critical infrastructure in Western countries, thereby increasing the price we pay for supporting Ukraine. However, it is a double-edged sword, the expert explained.
In this way, Russia may hope to reduce Western support, but it may have the opposite effect, as Western determination to help Ukraine could increase if such attacks were to occur. Rostok concluded that Russia does not have many tools with which to change the course of the war without making the situation worse.
On the other hand, according to political scientist Kārļis Daukšts, the “pobedabesija” or the rhetoric of victory misery continues in Russia, however, Ukraine will not lose this war. Russia is currently considering negotiations that would allow it to keep the occupied territories and prepare for future attacks on the rest of Ukraine, which could follow in a few years.
According to the political scientist, Russia’s dream is to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table with the support of the West, but neither Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky nor the Ukrainian people will allow this.
As soon as the president of Ukraine agreed to even the slightest compromise, he would not be Zelensky and would not be the president, said an expert who believes that the Ukrainian people are not ready for territorial losses.
“Currently, the Ukrainian people determine the further direction of development. The fate of Europe is currently in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. Everything is decided in the trenches, not in diplomatic negotiations,” the political scientist emphasized.
LETA already wrote that in the early morning of February 24 of last year, the Russian president gave the order to start the invasion of Ukraine. Western countries have imposed extensive sanctions on Russia for such actions.
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