The agency pointed out that from the perspective of passenger flow and consumption during the Spring Festival in my country, the domestic economy is expected to continue to recover; the overall valuation level of the capital market and foreign capital positions continue to rise before the Spring Festival. Under the current background of frequent positives, the most important thing to grasp the investment opportunities in the home appliance industry in 2023 are the three keywords of “recovery, transformation, and cost reduction”.
core logic
1. In 22 years, under the influence of the epidemic and other factors, the stock price performance of the home appliance and light industry sectors with strong optional attributes, certain post-real estate cycle attributes, and the impact of the epidemic’s closure and inability to decorate them was weaker than that of the market, and weaker than that of the market. in most other consumer sectors. As the impact of the epidemic is gradually lifted, optional consumption is gradually restored, and the demand that was previously affected by the inability to decorate is delayed and concentrated.It is expected that in 23 years, it is expected to usher in better investment opportunities in home appliances and other sectors。
2、In 2022, the supply-side and demand-side policies of real estate will be stimulated, and the real estate market is expected to gradually recover; at the same time, the peak of the first domestic epidemic has passed, the passenger flow in offline business districts has rebounded, and the consumption in the home appliance market has gradually recovered. From the perspective of enterprises, home appliance enterprises are highly motivated to start work after the Spring Festival this year; among them, Hefei Meiling said that corporate orders are strong before and after the Spring Festival, and Haier Smart Home stores have launched spring plowing operations. In terms of the secondary market, after the return of the Spring Festival holiday, many home appliance companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Supor, and Hisense Home Appliances have steadily carried out share repurchases, showing their strong confidence in the future recovery of the home appliance market.
3、During the Spring Festival this year, the consumer market as a whole is picking up, and “home appliance New Year’s greetings” have become a new way for some young people to pay New Year’s greetings. According to the “2023 Spring Festival Instant Consumption Data Report” released by JD.com, since the Lunar New Year, the sales of household electrical appliances have increased by 226% year-on-year, massagers, electric health pots, and air purifiers have increased by more than 2 times year-on-year. Kitchen appliances such as cooking machines and air fryers have increased by more than 8 times year-on-year. According to the data released by Suning.com, during the Spring Festival holiday, the sales of sweeping robots, washing machines and dishwashers in Suning.com stores increased by 119% year-on-year, and the sales of kitchen appliances such as air fryers and barbecue machines increased by 145% year-on-year. The number of “trade-in” orders for home appliances in stores nationwide increased by 3 times year-on-year.
4、Judging from the passenger flow and consumption during the Spring Festival in my country, the domestic economy is expected to continue to recover; the overall valuation level of the capital market and the holdings of foreign capital continue to rise before the Spring Festival. Under the current background of frequent positives, the most important thing to grasp the investment opportunities in the home appliance industry in 2023 are the three keywords of “recovery, transformation, and cost reduction”. In the context of declining external demand, the superimposed recovery of real estate and the improvement of income will further promote the recovery of consumption; in the context of the energy revolution, home appliance companies will also further accelerate their transformation; Enterprise cost pressure will be eased.
5. Since late December 2022, northbound funds have continued to flow into A-shares, driving the market up and igniting core blue-chip markets such as home appliances. In the context of the macroeconomic “rising in the east and falling in the west”, overseas funds have poured into China. Both allocation-type and transaction-type foreign capital tend to consume and blue-chip products, and there is still room for growth in foreign capital holdings. At present, the proportion of heavy positions allocated by public offering funds in the home appliance industry is only 1.4%, maintaining a low level since 2021Q3. Domestic funds represented by public offerings have sufficient room for allocation.At present, all sectors of the home appliance industry are still in the low valuation range, and the attractiveness is high. The valuation is expected to continue to recover in 2023。
Good for individual stocks
Dongguan Securities pointed out that the impact of the epidemic has subsided, the global economy is recovering, and consumer demand for home appliances will gradually be released. It is expected that the home appliance market will be relatively optimistic in 2023. It is recommended to focus on home appliance categories whose sales are picking up, and continue to pay attention to excellent home appliance companies with high valuations and cost-effective performance and performance resilience. For example, Midea Group with technology and products in parallel, Haier Smart Home with high-end and ecological brands, Robam Appliances with traditional kitchen appliances, Wanhe Electric with smooth development of heat pump business, Supor with export sales expected to return to normal, domestic smart control leader Heertai, Sanhua Zhikong, a leader in cold distribution with high growth in auto parts business.
Tebon Securities believes that looking forward to 2023, the home appliance sector is expected to usher in greater investment opportunities, and it mainly recommends the following investment directions:
1) After the epidemic, offline passenger flow + consumer confidence restoration related consumption: the prosperity of sweepers is expected to pick up, the offline layout continues to be effective, and 23Q2 is expected to usher in an inflection point. It is recommended to pay attention to Ecovacs + Stone Technology; XGIMI Technology, the leader in the category of projectors; Xiaoxiong Electric, which conforms to the trend of cost-effective emotional consumption and has a strong a; conforms to high-end/appearance/quality consumption, has a prominent brand effect and platformization results, and has greater flexibility in export sales. , it is recommended to pay attention to Beeasy (health care) + EZVIZ Network (aging) which is more flexible in offline repair and the attributes of emerging categories are highly in line with demand trends; Feike which conforms to the trend of personalized/beautiful consumption and has achieved remarkable results in organizational structure adjustment Electrical appliances; it is recommended to focus on Joyoung, which has a relatively high proportion of offline companies and is relatively flexible (the appointment of a new executive is expected to bring new changes) + Supor; it is recommended to focus on Hisense Video, which conforms to the trend of quality life and continues to improve corporate governance.
2) Real estate improvement + valuation restoration, valuation boost in the first half of the year & fundamental inflection point in the second half of the year: mainly kitchen appliances and white appliances, it is recommended to pay attention to Haier Zhijia, the leader of white appliances (significant alpha advantage, high-end + drop This logic of increasing efficiency continues to be fulfilled), Midea Group (diversified layout continues to make efforts, and the results of a new round of reforms are expected to show), Hisense Home Appliances (the improvement of corporate governance continues to be realized, and central air-conditioning conforms to the trend of consumption upgrades), and is expected to benefit from the recovery of real estate , The sinking market still has a large room for improvement in the penetration rate of the kitchen appliance leaders Martian, Yitian Smart, and Robam Appliances.
The content of this article is selected from the following research reports:
Bohai Securities “Household Appliance Industry Monthly Report: Spring Festival Consumption Picks Up, Home Appliance Market Can Expect Recovery”
Dongguan Securities “Household Appliances Industry Weekly: Enterprises actively resume work after the holiday, paying attention to sales recovery categories”
Tebon Securities “2023 Investment Strategy for Household Appliances Industry: Quarterly Deduction Calculation and Opportunity Review of Several Key Issues”
CITIC Securities “2023 investment strategy for electrical appliances: recovery, transformation, cost reduction, and promotion of valuation recovery”
Driving Valuation Recovery”
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