Republicans Wrestle With Trump: Has His Magic Worked?

The Republican Party will investigate the disappointing results of the November midterm elections. Thanks to a struggling economy, inflation, and an unpopular president, the Republicans would win big. But even if the party won a majority in the House of Representatives the expected “red wave” did not materialize.

The result exposes a rift between diehard Trump supporters and more traditional Republicans. Especially in swing states, where every vote can be decisive for the 2024 presidential election, knives are already being sharpened.

Michigan is one of those states. The Republicans have lost there on all counts this year. Both houses of state government were won by Democrats for the first time in 40 years. Painful for Republicans, but certainly for former President Donald Trump who has supported several candidates. The question now is whether Trump is a cause of the loss.

As a newcomer in 2016, Trump managed to win Michigan with a narrow majority. On the eve of the election, he held a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, the furniture capital of Michigan. Rob Verheulen, chairman of the Republican Party in that region, was still behind him on stage at the time: “A lot of people here felt like politicians were looking down on us. Trump managed to connect us and interpret that voice of the people”.

The names of many candidates in this region indicate Dutch ancestry. Few of them made mid-term successes. Verheeulen: “One reason is that there was an abortion rights bill on the ballot. This led to higher turnout among Democrats. Another reason is that there was a lot of division within the party between Trump supporters and traditional conservatives.”

That divide became visible as traditional conservative donors withheld money from Trump-backed candidates who still claim the 2020 election was stolen. As a result, those candidates had too little money to campaign properly.

Many Trump Republicans won the domestic primaries over traditional Republicans, but lost the general elections of democratic opponents. The disappointing results didn’t stop Donald Trump from reappearing less than a week after the midterm nominate for the 2024 presidential election.

Prominent party members in Michigan are speaking out now, as they fear losing the next election with the former president in the lead. In a leaked memo, party celebrity Paul Cordes blames his own party for the lost election. According to him, the party has focused too much on niche topics. “There were more campaign ads about transgender people than the inflation moderate voters should have tapped into,” Cordes wrote.

Trump’s role could very well dismantle the party, thinks Jeff Timmer, former Michigan Republican Party chairman. He split from the party when Trump joined. “The party keeps advocating extreme policies, such as the anti-abortion stance. They keep doing the same in hopes of getting different results. I think that’s the definition of insanity.”

According to Timmer, Trump has revealed the true nature of the party. “It’s become an ‘us versus them’, xenophobic, racist, male-dominated, basically Christian party. Instead of the secular American politics we’ve always had.”

Where Trump first succeeded in connecting hardworking Americans, that is no longer the case, says Timmer. “The Republican Party still thinks it represents the silent majority with its ideas, despite evidence that this is no longer the case. Republicans have lost the election three times in a row with Trump at the helm.”

Yet Trump isn’t just going to disappear from the scene, thinks Timmer, who is now a leading member of the anti-Trump movement The Lincoln Project. “I don’t think there is anyone stronger than Trump, but if he doesn’t become the presidential candidate, he will burn his own party. It’s in his character.”

If Trump later decides to run — nonpartisan — it could mean the downfall of the Republican Party, Verheulen fears. Because tens of millions of Americans number in the hard Trump core. “If Trump leaves and takes his constituents with him, it’s not healthy for the party.”

Timmer sees this scenario as an opportunity. “The Republican Party must be razed to the ground. Only then can something new rise from the ashes. We must create a more moderate alternative.”