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The whole world will be watching the USA on November 5th. But if Donald Trump loses the election, there could be great chaos again. The Republicans have been preparing the uprising for months.
Washington, DC – There are still about seven weeks until the world knows whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be elected to the White House. Until the votes are counted, the US television stations give the states to the Democrats or Republicans on oversized touch screens – and in the case of close results, point out that the state is “too close to call”, i.e. too close to predict the outcome.
There is currently growing fear in the USA that in seven weeks, after the presidential election, it may not even be decided who will be the new president of the country. Because the Republicans could – similar to the 2020 election – contest the result if they lose.
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Preparations are already underway, as the British newspaper The Guardian reported. In March of this year, members of the five-member election board in Fulton County, Georgia, refused to accept the results of the Republican presidential primary. The two members, both Republicans, demanded more information from election officials, including records of the chain of custody of ballots.
The Republican presidential candidate: Donald Trump. © Alex Brandon/dpa
In May, the procedure was repeated in another primary election, and the release of additional information was again demanded. In addition, Julie Adams, one of the two members of the election board, together with a group close to Trump, sued the county administration and asked a judge not to recognize the election.
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The election was confirmed in an extensive process. But in early August, the Republican-controlled election board in Georgia passed a new rule. According to this, members of the local election boards must conduct an unspecified “reasonable investigation” of all potential discrepancies before they can confirm the election. This could significantly delay the outcome of the 2024 US election.
The Fulton County case and the new regulation in Georgia could have been a dress rehearsal for what Trump and his allies are planning if they lose the election in November. In recent months, the former US president has repeatedly stressed that he may challenge election results. In addition, he said at the end of June this year that Christians would “never have to vote again” if they won the election. The statement caused a political outcry in the USA.
Elections in the USA: Republicans copy tactics from US election 2020
Observers assume that Trump’s approach for the 2024 US election could also be based on his tactics for the 2020 election. Back then, too, he had already begun to sow doubts about the integrity of the presidential election months before election day. But there are also differences compared to the elections of four years ago. Trump and his team are much more experienced and therefore better prepared. The Republican National Committee recently claimed to have recruited 100,000 election observers who could cause disruptions during the voting and counting, so the fear goes.
More importantly, the idea that the election may have been stolen has gone from being held by some Republicans to being held by the majority. A poll by the nonprofit Public Religion Research Institute found that two-thirds of Republicans believe the 2020 election was stolen. During the Republican National Convention in July of this year, Trump said in a video, “The most important thing we have to do is protect the election. You have to keep your eyes open because these people want to cheat and they do, and frankly, it’s the only thing they’re good at.”
US election in November: Two-thirds of Republicans believe election was stolen
The fact that the election was stolen has now become a standard position of the Republicans. The seeds of doubt sown in 2020 are now set to grow in 2024. Many Republicans are currently claiming that the voter rolls contain non-existent people and immigrants who have no right to vote on November 5. The party is pushing for a law that requires proof of citizenship when registering to vote.
Such a law could result in millions of eligible voters not being able to cast their vote. Almost one in ten eligible voters, a total of 21 million Americans, do not have documents proving their citizenship. This is the conclusion of a study published this year.
It is unlikely that such a bill would pass the Senate, but such proposals help reinforce the impression that there is something wrong with the US presidential election. The fact that the Democrats declared Harris as their presidential candidate late in the election campaign was also portrayed by the Republicans as illegitimate, even calling it a “coup”.
Elections in the USA: Preparations for possible election defeat underway
For several months, Republicans have also been filing lawsuits in various states to create the impression that the voter lists in several Swing States were not carried out properly. The aim of all this is to undermine the credibility of the electoral authorities. The more insecure Americans are, the more likely it is that the narrative of a stolen election will be implanted in their minds.
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Further uncertainty could be caused by the fact that in two important swing states, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, poll workers are not allowed to start counting mail-in votes until election day. The result in both states, where polls show Harris and Trump neck and neck, could take that long. A tactic from 2020 could also be used again here: the numerous election observers recruited by the Republicans could collect supposed evidence that Trump and his campaign could use to challenge the election. In Arizona in 2020, observers had made false affidavits that ballots had been rejected because of the type of pens used.
Trump vs. Harris: Republicans put pressure on election auditors after 2020 US election
There were similar reports from Georgia at the time, where election observers were allegedly expelled from the facilities. In Michigan, Trump’s team cited an “interim report” from an election observer who claimed she had heard employees giving instructions on how to count a rejected ballot. Trump also put pressure on election auditors not to recognize the election.
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In Wisconsin, the state Supreme Court was close to blocking the certification of the election results. Trump called then-governor Doug Ducey in Arizona and put pressure on him not to certify the election results. In the years that followed, there were repeated cases in which officials refused to recognize the final results. In most cases, courts then ruled and the results were confirmed. But this increased doubts in the minds of many Republican supporters. Something like this acts like “fuel for conspiracy theories,” Ben Berwick, a lawyer with the non-profit organization Protect Democracy, told the Guadian.
Presidential election in November: US democracy has become more defensive
Another problem could be that possible delays could throw the tight schedule into disarray. The states must submit official election results by December 11, six days before the Electoral College meets. A delay could open up “tricky legal questions and scope for trickery,” Berwick fears.
But there is also good news: US democracy has become more resilient in recent years. A law passed by Congress at the end of 2022 offers new protection against electoral fraud. It prevents Trump and his allies from submitting false voter lists in swing states, as they did after the 2020 election. Lawyers and Democratic activists also had four years to study the weaknesses in the electoral system that Trump and his team might be targeting. It remains unclear, of course, what exactly the days and weeks after the 2024 presidential election will look like. However, there is still hope that the fears of many observers of US politics will not come true. (fmü)
