Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other top Republicans are ramping up a personal campaign to persuade Maryland Governor Larry Hogan to run for Senate and help the party regain control of the chamber.
The recruiting effort has included McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, who held cabinet positions in the Trump and George W. Bush administrations. Senate Republican moderates, including Susan Collins of Maine, have also been in direct contact with Hogan to point out that his brand of centrist politics would be welcome in a chamber divided by partisanship. Several other Washington officials have made financial promises or shared internal polls to try to convince Hogan that he has a path to victory.
President Joe Biden outscored Maryland by 32 percentage points in 2020 and a Republican has not won a statewide federal office in more than 30 years. Hogan, who is prevented by term limits from running for reelection, has long resisted the idea of challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen. Hogan, one of former President Donald Trump’s GOP critics, has toyed with mounting a presidential campaign in 2024.
Still, his willingness to engage recently with high-profile recruiters suggests Hogan hasn’t ruled out a Senate run. If he entered the Senate race instead, it would force Democrats to pour money and other resources into a longstanding blue state at a time when they are already gearing up for a difficult campaign season across the country.
Hogan said Tuesday that he remains focused on his job as governor.
“I don’t have a burning desire to serve in the US Senate, and I do have a burning desire to continue to focus on this job fully every day, and that’s what we’re doing,” Hogan said when asked. about your future plans. at a news conference on tax relief proposals he will make in the state legislative session.
As for a potential presidential run, Hogan said “there’s plenty of time to worry about that.”
“We just started 2022,” Hogan said. “We certainly don’t have to start talking about 2024.”
The recruitment effort was described by multiple people with direct knowledge of the talks. They requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.
Hogan’s decision, due by the February 22 filing deadline, is among the last major unanswered questions as the Senate landscape begins to settle ahead of the first cycle of midterm elections. of the Biden presidency.
Publicly, Democrats remain confident in their position in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.
“Our campaign is fully prepared for anyone Mitch McConnell recruits to run here,” Van Hollen spokesman Keith Presley said. “Senator Van Hollen is busy working to get results for the people of Maryland and to protect our democracy.”
For their part, McConnell and Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who heads the GOP’s Senate campaign arm, have had multiple recruiting talks with Hogan in recent months. McConnell’s lieutenant, Steven Law, who runs a McConnell-allied super PAC, also spoke with the Republican governor.
More recently, however, the GOP’s recruiting drive has become more personal.
Since Hogan was unconvinced by McConnell’s proposals, Chao encouraged a Senate bid during a private lunch with Hogan’s wife at the Maryland Governor’s Mansion, which Hogan briefly attended. Chao was scheduled to take her father to another private lunch with Ms. Hogan, though it was canceled due to COVID-19 concerns.
Over lunch, Chao emphasized the sense of community on Capitol Hill with the families of the other senators. He also appealed to Mrs. Hogan’s sense of patriotism, presenting the Senate as a great way for the Hogans to serve their country. Chao and Yumi Hogan, both prominent Asian-Americans, were friends before the Senate race came into the spotlight.
At the same time, a handful of Republican senators, including Collins, have reached out directly to Hogan to encourage him to run. And more than one suitor, including at least one Republican governor, has argued that the Senate could be a springboard for a future presidential bid, which Hogan has openly contemplated.
Those close to Hogan are skeptical that he will ultimately decide to run for Senate. So far, he has done nothing to prepare for a Senate campaign other than agree to talk to his Republican recruiters.
Washington Republicans are betting that Hogan could break his losing streak in Maryland. He has already won statewide office twice, including in 2018, an election year that favored Democrats nationally. He has enjoyed strong approval ratings throughout his time in office.
But history suggests that appeal in state elections may not carry over to higher office. Two-term former Montana Governor Steve Bullock was a prized 2020 Democratic Senate recruit who lost his race by 10 percentage points in a campaign dominated by national issues.
Facing similar dynamic and deplorable partisanship in Washington, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu resisted an aggressive lobbying push by McConnell and his allies in November and instead announced plans to seek another term as governor.
If Hogan runs, his team knows they will be tested like never before.
For example, he has so far largely avoided the taint of a developing ethics scandal involving his former chief of staff, Roy McGrath, who faces multiple state and federal criminal charges related to a severance package he sought when he left the job. principal at a quasi-public state agency to serve as Hogan’s chief assistant.
The messy situation is just the kind of political ammunition that critics from both parties could use to attack Hogan in a well-funded TV ad campaign.
“The fact that Hogan voted to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader and hand the Senate over to Republicans, coupled with his mounting corruption and ethics scandals, would provide voters with more than enough reason to outright reject his campaign.” said David Bergstein, a spokesman for the campaign arm of the Senate Democrats. “If he runs, all he will do is join the 40-year long history of Republicans losing federal elections throughout the state of Maryland.”
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