The energy transition necessarily involves the electrification of uses which is the best way, by far, to decarbonize economies. But this means an inevitable increase in electricity consumption which will become much more significant in transport, heat and industry. It is still necessary that investments in production and distribution capacities, networks, be sufficient to meet needs. We can seriously doubt this, in Europe and in France, where for decades technocrats and political decision-makers have been incapable of anticipating energy needs. The same goes for North America…
This is what shows a report published a few days ago by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the regulatory authority that oversees the North American power grid. In particular, it indicates that peak demand in North America has increased faster than at any time in the last five years. This signals a reversal of the trend of recent decades, characterized by a decline or stagnation in the growth of demand, and a de facto acceleration of the energy transition.
A “very high” risk for the central regions of the United States stretching from the Canadian border and Michigan and Minnesota to Louisiana
New York, New England and the entire western United States including Texas, which experienced a spectacular blackout in February 2021, as well as some of the most populated Canadian regions such as Ontario and British Columbia are running a “high risk” of experiencing power shortages during summer heat waves or winter storms in the coming years. And the risk is even considered “very high” for central regions of the United States which go from the Canadian border with states like Michigan and Minnesota to Louisiana including Tennessee and parts of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri and Kentucky.
One of the problems is that thermal power plants, particularly coal-fired ones, are being taken out of service before being replaced by renewable energy sources, wind and solar, which are themselves intermittent. At the same time, the construction of new lines to connect wind and solar farms to the grid is delayed for administrative and political reasons and there are shortages of transformers.
The unreliability of gas infrastructure
« Capacity shortages are expected in areas where plants are expected to be taken offline before sufficient replacement resources are available to meet forecast increases in demand. Energy risks exist in areas where the future mix of resources may not be able to provide the necessary electricity under energy constrained conditions. For example, temperatures below freezing can create energy-limiting conditions by disrupting the supply of natural gas to power plants… Periods of low wind are another example of potential energy constraints if the combination of resources does not is not sufficiently balanced with distributable resources to avoid electricity shortages », writes NERC.
Natural gas, considered a “ transition fuel » reaches its limits. It provides 40 to 80% of the electricity supply during cold months in the United States and Canada. But as peak winter demand continues to rise, the supply chain is no longer keeping up. Producers have struggled to operate power plants, pipelines and fields in very cold weather due to equipment failures and frozen wellheads.
Rapid increase in demand
« Natural gas plants are essential to meeting demand. They are available around the clock and provide consistent rated power over a wide range of conditions. However, it is not possible to guarantee sufficient natural gas supply without improving reliability measures… “, writes NERC. She adds that new wind and solar photovoltaic resources weaken networks through their intermittency and frequent absence during periods of extreme weather.
Finally, demand is increasing rapidly which is linked to the electrification of heating and transport systems which creates new peaks in electricity demand in winter, in addition to those observed in summer with the increase in use air conditioning. Another problem is the increase in demand for electricity, particularly from the proliferation of data centers. The consulting firm McKinsey estimates that power consumption of data centers Americans could double by 2030.
2023-12-27 19:36:10
#North #America #threat #blackouts #Transitions #Energies
