The remittances that arrive in Mexico will establish a all-time high by sixth consecutive year and they will be more powerful than the wealth of entire countries like Venezuela, Bolivia or Paraguay.
Considered by the World Bank (WB) As vital to reducing the levels of poverty and inequality in countries with developing economies, these transfers have surprised by the performance they show in the midst of a pandemic of Covid-19, since instead of being limited, they accelerated their growth during 2020 and 2021.
This has been possible thanks to the recovery of economic activity on USA, where close to 95% of the Mexican migrant population resides, which led to an advance in jobs.
“In the United States, the loss of jobs from Mexican immigrants because of the pandemic ”, highlights an analysis by the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (Cemla) published in August.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador He recently stated that his government estimates that remittances will be greater than 48 billion dollars this year, while analysts from BBVA and CitiBanamex estimate flows above 49 billion, almost one trillion pesos and more than 4% of the total value of the Mexican economy.
In any scenario, remittances will hit a new all-time high this year, after surpassing the previous record of about $ 41 billion set just in 2020.
Two decades ago, the country received remittances for 9 billion dollars, that is, a fifth of the more than 48 billion planned for this year.
In addition, for the first time in history, remittances sent by more than 7 million migrant workers Mexicans will be more powerful than the wealth of entire countries, such as Venezuela, Bolivia O Paraguay.
With a population of almost 28 million people, the total value of the Venezuelan economy will plummet to $ 43 billion this year, according to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The wealth of Bolivia, where 12 million people reside, is also valued at 43 billion dollars, while Paraguay will accumulate 38 billion in 2021, with more than 7 million inhabitants.
Recognized for occupying the fifth and sixth place among the nations that receive the most remittances in America, El Salvador and Honduras will present a START a set of 52 billion dollars, that is, almost the remittance flows that Mexico is expected to attract this year.
Without remittances, there would be more poverty in Mexico and the price of the dollar would be more expensive, he said. Alfredo Coutiño, Director for Latin America of Moody’s Analytics.
“The great growth shown by remittances reveals the failure of the economic policies in Mexico, in particular from 2019 to date, because in this period the flow of people leaving the country in search of new opportunities has increased, as it is difficult to find a decent and well-paid job in Mexico, mainly for the working classes with a level low educational level, ”he explained in an interview.
From his point of view, insecurity problems have also contributed to Mexicans leaving their place of origin, especially in Michoacán, the second state that receives the most remittances in the country.
BBVA experts foresee that Michoacán would be the state where the population in a situation of poverty if no remittances had been received, followed by Guanajuato, Guerrero, Zacatecas and Oaxaca.
The estimated flow of remittances for this year is equivalent to the combined total wealth of four entities in the country: Quintana Roo, Baja California Sur, Nayarit and Guerrero, where more than seven million people live, according to CitiBanamex calculations.
Only in the last six years have remittances doubled in value. Banorte experts believe that flows will continue to grow during 2022, despite lower economic stimuli in the American Union, with the measures for the pandemic fading, and some tensions regarding migration.
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