Relocation plans of Germans: City escape after the pandemic?

Status: 07/19/2021 3:47 p.m.

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The corona experiences could lead to increased migration from city centers. According to a study by the Ifo Institute, numerous city dwellers have decided to move away from the metropolises.

The everyday life experienced during the corona pandemic could drive many Germans out of the big cities. According to a survey by the Munich Ifo Institute and the real estate portal Immowelt, more than every eighth inhabitant (12.9 percent) in cities with over half a million inhabitants want to leave them within a year.

Almost half of the 18,000 respondents named the situation in the Corona crisis as an important reason for the decision to move to the country or to a smaller town. With restaurants, clubs, bars and shops closed and the lack of cultural events, many advantages were lost. The home office also made life outside of the cities easier.

“Less compromises with your own living conditions”

Of course, you don’t know how many people actually put their intentions into practice, but plans to leave the city within six or twelve months can be seen as relatively concrete, said study author Mathias Dolls. All of the almost 13 percent willing to move would certainly not leave the big cities.

“Many respondents state that they want to make fewer compromises with their own living conditions in the future because they spend more time at home due to the pandemic,” explained Jan-Carl Mehles, head of market research at Immowelt and co-author of the study. According to the work, families with children and younger age groups in the start-up phase in particular are moving away from the city centers.

Specifically, 5.3 percent of the residents of the large cities surveyed said they wanted to leave the city within six months. Another 7.6 percent would have the goal of doing that within twelve months. Moving to other large cities was not included.

Big cities not a place of longing?

In addition, it is noticeable that people outside the big cities do not have a particularly high desire to move there, according to Dolls. They are not a place of longing. At the moment, no one can say whether the bottom line will be more immigrants or more emigrants in the metropolises.

A study by the Institute of German Business in March also came to similar results: According to this, more people have been moving from inner cities to the surrounding area since 2014 than the other way around. The largest group are 35 to 50 year olds.

Smaller cities and suburbs preferred

In the current survey, the most common relocation destinations were smaller cities with 100,000 to 500,000 inhabitants and “suburban areas” in the suburbs of large cities. Rural areas, on the other hand, only play a subordinate role, according to the authors.

The trend is also shown by a market analysis by the real estate agent Engel & Völkers for around 700 communities in all districts bordering the top 7 cities in Germany. Accordingly, people mainly move to the suburbs of large metropolises.

“In times of Corona, people want to move more and more into the countryside, but at the same time they don’t want to miss the advantages of urban life and the security of first-class medical care,” said Kai Enders, member of the board at the real estate agent.

Better infrastructure needed

The trend could continue for the time being: According to the Ifo survey, many more residents of the big cities are thinking about moving beyond quick relocation plans. That brings with it new challenges. “Our results suggest that a better connection between the suburban and urban areas and an expansion of the educational infrastructure will become more important in the affected communities,” said Ifo expert Dolls.

Because 18.5 percent of those surveyed want to leave in the next two or five years. For a further 24.4 percent, such a move would be an option. Not even half – 44.2 percent – refuse to leave the big cities. For comparison: In rural areas, more than two thirds refused to move.

How many people want to leave the big cities varies greatly from place to place. This is particularly common in Hanover, where 16.5 percent of those surveyed stated that they wanted to move away within a year. It is followed by Frankfurt with 16.2, Dortmund with 14.2 and Berlin and Stuttgart with 14.1 percent each.

Düsseldorf (13.7 percent), Cologne (13.5 percent), Munich (12.5 percent) and Nuremberg (12 percent) are relatively close to the average. In Hamburg with 11.4 and Bremen with 11.1 percent, the desire to move is rather below average. The residents of Leipzig (10.5 percent), Dresden (9.5 percent) and Essen with (7.6 percent) are the least likely to want to leave their city.

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