Fears of an acceleration of the contagion have arisen. And now, according to experts from the Higher Institute of Health, Italy is moving towards it scenario 4: the most serious. The one for which a total lockdown must be evaluated.
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In particular the alarm is high for 5 regions – Lombardy, Campania, Liguria, Lazio and Valle d’Aosta – and for the autonomous province of Bolzano. Special surveillance in Milan. There are three weeks, if the contagion does not decrease, the most drastic measure will have to be evaluated. This was stated by the study delivered to the government which, in order to assess the risks on the population and the impact on health facilities, describes situations and possible remedies.
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I study
After the controversy, the numbers count. In particular the RT, the contagiousness index. The study reads: «In this scenario, regional Rt values are prevalently and significantly higher than 1.5 (ie with estimates of the 95% confidence interval of Rt greater than 1.5). A scenario of this type could quickly lead to a high number of cases and clear signs of overload of assistance services, without the possibility of tracing the origin of the new cases ». This could lead to, “an overload of welfare services within 1-1.5 months, unless the epidemic spreads predominantly among the youngest, as observed in July / August 2020, and the most fragile categories such as Senior citizens”.
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But, adds the ISS, “it seems rather unlikely to be able to protect the most fragile categories in the presence of an epidemic characterized by these values of transmissibility”. And he explains: “In a national scenario of this type it is presumed that many regions are classified as high risk and, given the speed of diffusion and the interconnection between the various regions, it is unlikely that there are situations of lower than moderate risk”. And finally: “If the high-risk situation persists for a period of more than three weeks, very aggressive containment measures are most likely necessary.”
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Who risks
The extraordinary commissioner for the Covid emergency, Domenico Arcuri, confirmed that «the growth of the infection has never been so impetuous. The positives are eight times more than three weeks ago. With these numbers, no health system, let alone the Italian one, will be able to hold up “, he warned at a press conference, remarking how the Regions” could implement hospital strengthening plans from May “.
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Among those who are most at risk of lockdown is Campania which for the first time exceeds 3,000 new infected in one day, with Naples which has 603. But Lombardy is also approaching the critical threshold: yesterday it recorded 7,339 new positives, another 53 hospitalizations in intensive care and 57 deaths. And above all Milan is in the spotlight. The microbiologist Andrea Crisanti yesterday said «I would have done the lockdown in Milan 10 days ago». He also criticizes the situation in Bolzano, Liguria and Lazio. South Tyrol leaves the soft line: bars and restaurants (which had been open in the evening) will close at 6pm.
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October 30, 2020 (change October 30, 2020 | 06:53)
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