The Reassemblement National of Marine Le Pen it grows, but not enough to bring home the victory predicted by the polls before these regional elections in France, the last call to vote before the Presidential elections in April 2022, when the far right of the daughter of art will try to rise to theEliseo. It had to be a test of strength for all parties: for The Republic in March of Emmanuel Macron was the first test at the regional, given that in 2015 the party had not yet presented itself, for Le Pen it had instead to be an opportunity to demonstrate that he is truly capable of undermining the leadership of the macronists, while Republicans and the blocking of left above all they hoped not to run into a sensational debacle that would have pushed them even further, after the collapse of consensus in recent years. And instead it is the latter, surprisingly, who emerge as winners from the last consultations, characterized however by a record abstention: only 33% of those eligible went to the polls. The latter number which Le Pen has interpreted as proof of amissed opportunity: “Our voters did not go to vote, I ask for a payback” for the second round, he said asking “not to be influenced by the results of the first round and to mobilize to grab the victory that France needs”.
The Républicains, given for dying, are in the lead and establish themselves as the most voted party at the national level, just ahead of the blockade of the left. At around 19%, the extreme right-wing lepenist is detached. It does not take off, but this was expected, La République en Marche which is not in the government of any region and shows that in five years it has not managed to take root in the territory. The first party, however, remains by far that of abstention, between 66.1% and 68.6%. One out of three French people voted, a negative record that broke the previous one, that of 2010 which had seen 53.67% at the regional polls. “It is particularly worrying”, admitted the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin.
With the traditional parties ready to revive after years of total darkness, the president must revive his project to be able to stay in the Elysée. In almost all regions, the outgoing candidates of a country governed, at a territorial level, by the traditional right and left are in the lead. The big surprise are undoubtedly the Républicains, struck at the beginning of the election campaign by the flight of Thierry mariani, who showed up with Le Pen’s party in the region where Rassemblement National was favored (Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur) and that less than Marion Marshal, Marine’s granddaughter, five years ago. The fate of the region traditionally more favorable to Le Pen, that of Marseille e Nice, will be decided on Sunday with the ballot between Mariani and the outgoing Musélier, with strong possibilities of convergence of a fate in the Republican front on the candidate of the moderate right. Just Muselier e Xavier Bertrand, big winner in the Hauts-de-France, North of Paris, where he literally tore the opponent of the Rassemblement National (47% against 23%) are the two men who seem destined to lead the destinies of the right in the coming months.
It is not taken for granted, therefore, that the duel for the Elysée will present itself as a re-edition of Macron against Le Pen of 2017: a challenge between the outgoing president and the representative of the neo-Gaullists, for example, cannot be excluded. For Marine Le Pen, on the other hand, difficult moments are looming if the collapse of the party’s consensus is confirmed, which would even take 10 points less than the 2015 regional ones.
Thus, the macronists defeated in the Hauts-de-France region, and in general throughout the country, aim to give the coup de grace to the extreme right and invite their supporters to vote for the candidate of the Republicains in the second round of the regional ones. Macron’s party appeals to one “Republican barrage”. “We ask you to vote for Xavier Bertrand unambiguously, because he has to face the National Rassemblement”, said Stanislav Guerini, President of the Presidential Majority Party.
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