Alliance, merger, withdrawals from lists: in all regions the time has come to compose lists for the second round. However, there are regions where it is much easier than others.
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On the right, we smile
The Republicans party is coming back to life. If we take the results by party, the LR lead the vote with around 30%. This is quite logical insofar as the most mobilized during this election were the oldest and most well-off voters: the heart of the electorate of the traditional right.
The right can therefore hope to keep most of its regions: Hauts-de-France with Xavier Bertrand in triangular form, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes with Laurent Wauquiez, the Grand Est with Jean Rottner, Île-de-France with Valérie Pécresse and Normandy with Hervé Morin. In Pays de la Loire, the outgoing Christelle Mor though is threatened by the union of the left.
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On the left, we unite
Part in dispersed order in the first round except in Hauts-de-France, the left will meet for the second round in the regions where it is in conquest, in particular Pays de la Loire, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Grand Est. In Île-de-France, Julien Bayou, national secretary of EE-LV, won the primary of the left against Audrey Pulvar (PS) and Clémentine Autain (LFI). After a short night and discussions on Monday morning, the deal was sealed. A first campaign trip has already taken place. It will take more than smiles in the photo to win: Valérie Pécresse (35.9%) has a serious lead.
The left came out on top in all the regions it has led since 2015: Brittany, New Aquitaine, Occitanie, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Center-Val de Loire.
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The RN has a hangover
The party of Marine Le Pen was in the lead in six regions in 2015. This time, it is leading by little in the region of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and again with a significantly lower score. A success in the second round would be a nice consolation prize.
In several regions, it drops below 15%, such as Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Pays de la Loire, Île-de-France, etc. It is a defeat for the party of Marine Le Pen which loses votes in absolute value. A single example, undoubtedly the most telling: Marine Le Pen had gathered around 900,000 votes in 2015 in Nord-Pas-de-Calais; Sébastien Chenu for the RN won over just over 320,000 voters on Sunday.
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The majority ridiculed
Five ministers in Hauts-de-France – including Gérald Darmanin and Eric Dupond-Moretti – and in the end, not even 10%: the majority will unsurprisingly gain no region. She was not rocking herself with illusions and she ended with a lot of disillusion, especially in Hauts-de-France. “It’s a clear defeat. We made five points less than what was planned, everywhere, ”analyzes a minister from the left.
However, the majority are not desperate. LREM and the MoDem expected a defeat and this does not mortgage the chances of Emmanuel Macron for 2022, they want to believe.
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Surprise: the word of the week
All political leaders use it: they call for a democratic start. This is the case for Marine Le Pen, whose party suffered greatly from abstention, and also for Olivier Faure, the first secretary of the PS.
All want a civic leap to avoid having two out of three French people who are not interested in the election next Sunday. Usually, there is indeed a burst of mobilization in the regions for the second round. But unlike 2015, the suspense for the second round is limited, except in the southern region, the only region where the outgoing LR Renaud Muselier is ahead.
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