On Friday, NATO foreign ministers will meet for extraordinary talks on the tense situation in Ukraine.
– The meeting will also be an opportunity to discuss the series of talks to have with Russia, not least the meeting of the NATO-Russia Council on 12 January, a spokesman for NATO told TV 2.
All indications are that the latter meeting will be challenging. The Russian leadership has previously provided a comprehensive list of demands to the alliance. Among other things, Moscow will have promises that NATO will suspend military activity in Eastern Europe and that Ukraine will be denied membership forever.
A compromise that has been mentioned is a so-called moratorium, ie NATO for a limited period agrees not to admit new members.
– There are divided opinions in NATO about it, but some countries will probably be able to consider it, says senior researcher at FFI Tor Bukkvoll to TV 2.
– Deeply concerned
During the Foreign Ministers’ meeting on Friday, the member states will exchange views on this and give NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg a direction before he sits down at the negotiating table with the Russians on Wednesday next week.
– I am deeply concerned about the Russian force building against Ukraine. Norway is following the situation closely, Huitfeldt told TV 2 ahead of the meeting.
The Foreign Minister believes it is important that NATO continues to have a dialogue with Russia, but completely rejects that Norway will support any compromise solution that restricts the sovereign states’ freedom of action.
– We do not want to compromise on our values and principles. One of them is that every country is free to choose its own foreign policy affiliation. We can not accept changes in the European security order, and must maintain respect for international law and national sovereignty, says Huitfeldt to TV 2.
– SILENCE ON THE EAST FRONT: A Ukrainian soldier manning the trenches in the Donbas takes a breather on New Year’s Eve. In connection with the Orthodox Christmas celebration, the fighting in the area has slowed down. Photo: NTB Scanpix
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Expectations of concessions
Next week, Russian delegations will not only meet with NATO, but also with the other countries in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. In addition, US and Russian dealers will have separate talks in Geneva on Monday.
Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment believes that it will be important for Russia to be able to bring concrete concessions home from the meetings, although the government in Moscow is probably also satisfied with having a seat at the negotiating table at all.
– One might say that they have won half a victory. But it’s a cheap win. It does not help how many meetings you have, if they never end up in a compromise, says Bukkvoll to TV 2.
The researcher, like Huitfeldt, is concerned about the situation, especially because of the possibility that the Russian dealers will have to go home empty-handed.
– What worries me the most is that they have gone very high on the field. Putin has said that if they do not succeed, he will consider military action. If he does not achieve anything in the negotiations, he will have a credibility problem with the Russian elite.
Will there be a war?
The Ukrainians are afraid of the Russian invasion, but many are at the same time upset that the West seems to have forgotten that the country has long lived with war.
– CONCERNED: Alexander Tymczuk was born and raised in Norway and has researched Ukrainian social issues. Now he is following the situation in Ukraine closely through relatives and friends. Photo: Private
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– It’s a war with Russia already. So the question now is probably more of an existential nature. Will Russia take over the whole of Ukraine? But there is already a conflict, says Norwegian-Ukrainian Alexander Tymczuk to TV 2.
He is referring to the fighting in the eastern Donbas region, where Russia in 2014 supported local separatists, who have since received reinforcements, weapons and equipment from Moscow. So far, many thousands of people have lost their lives in the fighting and millions have been forced to flee.
In recent weeks, however, the situation has worsened, after Russia built up a massive concentration of troops near the Ukrainian border. Tymczuk is nevertheless a cautious optimist and does not think Russia’s president dares to go to full invasion.
– But I have burned myself to predict Putin’s actions before. I also did not think he would go to Crimea.
On Friday, Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt will meet her NATO colleagues with an expectation of unity in the alliance, and a hope that Russia will take the signals that are coming.
– Russia is responsible for the increased tension and must now show responsibility and lower the level of tension by reducing its military presence and withdrawing forces. Any renewed Russian military intervention in Ukraine will have very high political and economic consequences, she tells TV 2.
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