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Recovery and Differentiation in the Real Estate Market: Recent Land Auction Trends

Recently, with the implementation of relevant policies, the real estate market is expected to stabilize and rebound. At the same time, a number of key cities have launched a new round of land auctions, and the popularity of land auctions among real estate companies has increased. It is worth noting that although the land market has recovered slightly, overall, the market is still operating at a low temperature and has obvious differentiation.

Recently, the soil auction market in key cities such as Hefei, Jinan, Beijing, and Shanghai has shown signs of recovery. On November 2, Hefei put 5 land parcels on the market for sale, attracting about 7.7 billion yuan in fees. The premium rates of two land parcels reached 44.89% and 33.95% respectively. This is also the first land auction since Hefei canceled the maximum price limit for land bidding.

After the lifting of the maximum price limit for land auctions, Jinan, like Hefei, attracted many real estate companies to compete for land. On October 30, a total of 11 land parcels were sold in Jinan. In the end, all 11 land parcels were successfully sold, with a total transaction value of 4.27 billion yuan, of which 4 were sold at a premium and 7 at a low price. It is worth mentioning that two of the land parcels sold at a premium this time had more than 200 rounds of bidding. Among them, the land parcel in Jinan Colorful Stone Area was sold after 241 rounds of bidding, with a premium rate of 53.1%. It set a record for the highest land bidding round in Jinan since 2018.

In addition to some cities that have abolished the maximum price limit for local auctions, the markets in some key cities have also quietly heated up. On October 31, two parcels of land near Guogongzhuang Station of Metro Line 9 outside the South Fourth Ring Road in Beijing were successfully sold, with a total land transfer fee of 13.03 billion yuan collected.

Yan Yuejin, an analyst at E-House Research Institute, said that it was previously reported that at the end of September, the Ministry of Natural Resources had issued documents to the natural resources authorities of various provinces and cities, including proposals to cancel land price restrictions in land auctions and to cancel the 1.0 floor area ratio in outer suburbs. Restrictions etc. Against this background, including Jinan, the land auction rules of at least 7 hot cities such as Nanjing, Suzhou, Hefei, Xiamen, Chengdu, and Qingdao have been adjusted. Some land parcels to be transferred no longer have land price ceilings and have restarted their prices. The higher one gets the rules, which will lead to a certain recovery in the market. He believes that more cities will implement this policy in the next step.

“But it should also be noted that the differentiation of the soil auction market is more obvious.” Song Xuemei, an analyst at Tongce Research Institute, said that the differentiation of the soil auction market is obvious, and the competition for high-quality land parcels is fierce. After all reaches the upper limit of “competitive quality”, the lot will be drawn, and the lowest price in the peripheral areas make a deal.

According to a report from CRIC Research Center, in October, the performance of the land auction market in various cities was mixed. The transaction area of ​​first-tier cities was 4.34 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 138%; the transaction value was 90.8 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 129%. In second-tier cities, the transaction area was only 11.61 million square meters, a decrease of 20% from the previous month. Among third- and fourth-tier cities, the Yangtze River Delta is still the main transaction force. In terms of popularity, most of the transactions were at low prices, and the market popularity dropped to a low level.

In this regard, Yan Yuejin also said that although the land market has improved, overall, it is still in a low operating stage. At this stage, a “two-pronged approach” from both supply and demand is needed. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase financing policy support for real estate companies and increase the implementation of the “three arrows” policy, such as supporting the normalization of credit enhancement bond issuance and accelerating the approval of equity financing.

On the other hand, increasing the adjustment and relaxation of demand-side policies, especially restrictive policies in first- and second-tier cities, will promote the stabilization and recovery of real estate sales and improve financial institutions’ expectations for the real estate industry. Only then will financial institutions’ willingness to invest in real estate increase.

◆Editor: Long Hui ◆Second review: Chen Jichun ◆Third review: Zhou Yaping

2023-11-06 04:18:53
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