A climate projection to be expected. According to the latest data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperatures are expected to reach record highs over the next five years.
This runaway is fueled by the increase in greenhouse gases, which retain more heat and “El Niño”, a climatic phenomenon which is characterized by abnormally high water temperatures in the eastern part of the southern ocean. Peaceful.
According to the WMO, there is a 66% chance that between 2023 and 2027 the annual average global temperature will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.
The next five hottest years
Consequence related to this measure: there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, as well as the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record in the history of the humanity.
This statistical work by the WMO also zooms in on the warming of the Arctic, which, according to him, is experiencing “a disproportionate intensification”. Compared to the average for the period 1991-2020, the temperature in the Arctic is expected to be “three times higher than the global average anomaly”.
Increases directly linked to climate change
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement […]. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C level with increasing frequency,” says WMO Secretary General Professor Petteri Taalas.
The researcher continues his explanation: “An El Niño episode should develop in the coming months. Coupled with anthropogenic climate change, it will drive global temperatures to unprecedented levels.”
Adverse effect on human health
“The impacts on health, food security, water management and the environment will be considerable. We have to prepare”, warns the senior OMM executive.
“Global average temperatures are set to continue to rise, taking us ever further away from the climate we are used to,” agrees Leon Hermanson, UK Met Office scientist, who led the editorial staff of This rapport .
According to a latest Met Office bulletin, which is the WMO center for this type of forecast (decadal and annual), the probability that the five-year average temperature will exceed the threshold of 1.5°C is only 32% . However, the probability of a temporary breach of the 1.5°C threshold has steadily increased since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, this probability was 10%.
Climate adaptation, at the heart of the next World Meteorological Congress
This new report is published before the World Meteorological Congress to be held from May 22 to June 2. Participants will explore ways to strengthen weather and climate services for adaptation to climate change.
Among the priorities on the agenda of the Congress is a system allowing early warnings for all. According to the WMO, this “aims to protect populations from the intensification of extreme weather conditions”.
2023-05-17 10:16:36
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