The Director of the Budget Office said White House Shalanda Young via Twitter, Inc "The first two years of economic growth[under Joe Biden]are the strongest first two years (in this respect) of any president since President (Bill) Clinton".
In the last quarter alone, growth was 2.9 percent at an annual rate, a measure used by the United States that compares gross domestic product to the previous quarter and then makes a forecast about development over the course of the year. The growth increased by 0.7 percent compared to the previous quarter.
Rubila Farooqi, Chief Economist at "HFA" The gross domestic product "stronger than expected".
However, Oren Kalashkin, economist at "Oxford Economics"that "Most of the progress occurred early in the (last) quarter when the economy was fundamentally weak"he added "This performance is unlikely to be repeated in early 2023".
Central bank intervention
However, the year 2022 started badly, with the GDP declining for two quarters (-1.6 percent in the first quarter, then -0.6 percent in the second quarter), before returning to growth in the third quarter (3.2 percent)..
Consumption remains the engine US economystrong at the end of the year 2022 despite the intervention of the Central Bank, hoping to slow down very high.
And while Americans rely largely on credit for their purchases, the Federal Reserve raised the key interest rate, prompting commercial banks to raise interest rates..
This affects the purchasing power of consumers, who were suffering due to inflation.
The question remains: Will the year 2023 witness growth or stagnation?
Gregory Daco, Chief Economist, said "EY Parthenon" In a report by Agence France-Presse "Currently, economic indicators point more towards a recession that began at the beginning of the year, that is, in the months of December-January".
"debt ceiling"
However, even if the US economy continues to grow in 2023, this growth may still be very weak "So you will have to monitor the matter to see if there is a recession or not"at about one percent for the year.
There is only one body authorized to identify recessions in the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research. But his ads are published several months late.
Meanwhile, another threat is added in the form of the public debt ceiling, which was reached last week. Without an agreement in Congress, the United States may eventually find itself in default.
And the Republican majority in the House of Representatives wants to force the Democrats to return some of the expenses they voted on before they took control of the House.
Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle, a member of the Budget Committee, warned: Parliament In a statement of that default "It would be an unprecedented economic disaster".
And he said "While the American economy is witnessing steady growth, low inflation and a thriving job market, the last thing we need is reckless Republican politics that destroy everything.".
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The Ministry of Commerce said that GDP growth will reach 2.1 percent in 2022.
This is a slower pace compared to 2021, which witnessed the strongest growth since 1984, reaching 5.9 percent. This came after the previous year witnessed the largest drop in gross domestic product since 1946 (-3.5 percent) and two months of recession due to COVID-19.
The Director of the Budget Office said White House Shalanda Young on Twitter, “The first two years of economic growth[under Joe Biden]are the strongest first two years (in this respect) of any president since President (Bill) Clinton.”“.
In the last quarter alone, growth was 2.9 percent at an annual rate, a measure used by the United States that compares gross domestic product to the previous quarter and then makes a forecast about development over the course of the year. The growth increased by 0.7 percent compared to the previous quarter.
Rubila Farooqi, chief economist at HFA, said that the gross domestic product is “stronger than expected“.
However, Oren Klashkin, an economist at Oxford Economics, said that “most of the progress occurred early in the (last) quarter while the economy was fundamentally weak,” and added that “it is unlikely that this performance will be repeated in early 2023.”“.
Central bank intervention
However, the year 2022 started badly, with the GDP declining for two quarters (-1.6 percent in the first quarter, then -0.6 percent in the second quarter), before returning to growth in the third quarter (3.2 percent)..
Consumption remains the engine US economystrong at the end of the year 2022 despite the intervention of the Central Bank, hoping to slow down very high.
And while Americans rely largely on credit for their purchases, the Federal Reserve raised the key interest rate, prompting commercial banks to raise interest rates..
This affects the purchasing power of consumers, who were suffering due to inflation.
The question remains: Will the year 2023 witness growth or stagnation?
“Currently, economic indicators point more towards a recession that began at the beginning of the year, that is, in the months of December-January,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said in a report to Agence France-Presse.“.
“debt ceiling”
However, even if the US economy continues to grow in 2023, this growth may be so weak “that you will have to watch the matter to see if there is a recession or not”, at about one percent for this year..
There is only one body authorized to identify recessions in the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research. But his ads are published several months late.
Meanwhile, another threat is added in the form of the public debt ceiling, which was reached last week. Without an agreement in Congress, the United States may eventually find itself in default.
And the Republican majority in the House of Representatives wants to force the Democrats to return some of the expenses they voted on before they took control of the House.
Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle, a member of the Budget Committee, warned: Parliament In a statement, the default “would be an unprecedented economic catastrophe.”“.
“While the American economy is witnessing steady growth, declining inflation and a thriving labor market, the last thing we need is reckless Republican politics that destroy everything,” he said.“.
