Il real estate market Italian market is expected to close 2024 with sales falling slightly, but house prices still growing. This is the view of the Tecnocasa group research office, which indicated the number of exchanges expected at the end of the year at 690 thousand, with a price growth between +1 and +3%.
Interest rates and mortgages: how they affect sales in 2024
The interest in home purchases was then brought back by the new interest rate cut by 25 basis points carried out on October 17, 2024 by Bcewhich made theaccess to the mortgage even more convenient.
According to data provided by Bank of ItalyIn fact, the average rates applied to the mortgages granted come from a
downward trend that had lasted since 2013 and which led the average rate to reach its minimum in July 2020 with 1.17%. From there the new bullish phase began which pushed the indicator up to 4.91% in November 2023. Then the bearish phase followed.
“The rate cuts are an injection of confidence for potential buyers who, given the high levels reached by rents, could push towards purchasing,” he commented Fabiana Megliola, head of the Tecnocasa group research officewho then added: “The challenge, which also represents an opportunity for the real estate market, is to pursue sustainability without neglecting social rebalancing, in an increasingly uncertain and rapidly evolving context.”
For its part, Renato Landoni, president of Kìron Partnerthen specified that “Italian families received financing for the purchase of a home for 11,250 million euros in the second quarter of 2024” and that “compared to the same quarter of 2023 there was an increase in disbursements of 6.9% , for a value of over 729 million euros”.
Real estate market performance in the first half of 2024: sales and prices
To evaluate where to invest in the Italian real estate market in 2024, help could come from the performance of the sector in the first half of the year.
From Tecnocasa’s analysis it appears that the big cities they closed the first half of 2024 with a price increase of 0.9%with the exception of Palermo which recorded a decline of 0.4%. The best result is up to Firenzewhose home prices jumped 3.2%. They are tied for second place Milano e Napoliwith increases of 1.3%, followed by Torino (+0,9%), Roma e Bari (both with +0.6%), Verona (+0,3%) e Genova (+0,2%).
“The first half of 2024 gives us a real estate market back in motion, after the slowdown recorded in 2023, the year in which transactions had a major setback. The rate cuts made by the ECB have pushed potential buyers to approach the market with renewed confidence. The latter are more decisive and, above all, increasingly sensitive towards issues such as energy saving”, explained Megliola.
Source: Tecnocasa
The hinterlands of large cities and provincial capitals closed with a 1% price increase. However, the slowdown recorded in the Milan hinterland should be noted, even if the Lombard capital continues to attract buyers resident in the city.
Milan vs Rome: neighborhoods compared. Where is it best to buy a house?
Focusing on the two cities of Milan and Rome, how have prices moved in the main neighborhoods or in the main macro areas?
Change in prices in the main districts of Milan in the 1st half of 2024
Change in prices in the main neighborhoods of Rome in the 1st half of 2024
Real estate market and sustainability: new houses (green houses) vs used houses
“Home values also increased for new construction homes which closed with an increase of 1.1%. The sensitivity for the new, which grew during the lockdown, continues to
increase driven by the green house directive,” said Megliola, adding that in this semester their network has signaled growing attention towards the energy certification of the property, also driven by green mortgages.
Type of homes most in demand in Italian cities in 2024
In large cities, with 40.2% of requests, demand in July 2024 was mainly focused on three-room apartmentfollowed by the two-room apartment with 25.5% and the four-room apartment, with 22.1%.
Only exception is Milanowhere – due to the significant presence of investors and singles among the buyers and the fact of being the most expensive city in Italy, with a average price of €4,300 per m2 for a used type and €5,000 per m2 for a new one – the most searched for type is the two-room apartment, which received 46.6% of searches.
The Italian real estate market is expected to close 2024 with sales falling slightly, but house prices still growing. This is the view of the Tecnocasa group research office, which indicated the number of exchanges expected at the end of the year at 690 thousand, with a growth in prices between +1 and +3%.
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