2 out of 3 real estate experts predict
The metropolitan area shows a strong downward trend amid mixed conditions.
Recent downward trend expected to change in the first half of the year
82% predict an increase in rental prices in the metropolitan area
Apartments in Songpa-gu and Gangdong-gu, Seoul. 2023.12.24 [한주형 기자]
While apartment prices in the metropolitan area, including Seoul, have recently turned downward, two out of three real estate experts predicted a rebound in apartment prices in the first half of next year. Seoul predicted that it would rise by 1-3% next year on an annual basis. However, the prevailing opinion was that prices across the metropolitan area, including Gyeonggi and Incheon, would fall.
As a result of a survey conducted by Maeil Business Newspaper on the 25th of 50 real estate experts including consulting, academia, developers, and the financial sector, 68% (34 people) of respondents predicted that the recent decline will not continue until the second half of next year. The majority of experts (36%) said that the decline will stop in the second quarter of next year, while 32% of experts said that the decline will only continue until the first quarter of this year.
This outlook is due to the possibility of an interest rate cut next year. It is predicted that there will be a turnaround in the atmosphere as signals of an interest rate cut emerge in the first half of the year. However, more people predicted that sluggish trading would recover after the second half of the year. 54% of respondents answered that trading would recover in the third or fourth quarter, and 20% answered ‘after 2025.’
The most urgent measure to revitalize transactions was ‘relaxation of loan regulations such as DSR (debt service ratio)’ (34%), followed by ‘relaxation of heavy acquisition tax for multiple homeowners (24%)’ and ‘interest rate reduction (20%)’. followed.
‘Interest rates (multiple responses, 86%)’ were selected as the most important factor in determining the direction of housing prices next year. ‘Concerns about economic recession (36%, 18 people)’, ‘lack of supply (28%)’, and ‘loan regulations (26%)’ were cited in that order.
According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, apartment prices nationwide this year turned downward in the last week of November, leaving behind a four-month upward trend. Seoul also fell in the first week of this month after rising for about six months. The majority of experts (34%) responded that apartment prices in Seoul will rise by 1-3% per year next year. A flat rate of 0% followed at 22%, followed by a 1-3% drop at 18%. If we only consider whether it was rising or falling, 44% were rising and 34% were falling.
When the target area is expanded to the metropolitan area (including Seoul), the decline forecast is 44%, surpassing the rise (34%). The majority of respondents (72%) predicted that the decline would occur in rural areas, while 34% of respondents expected the decline to be 3-5%.
82% of respondents said that rental prices will rise in all metropolitan areas, including Seoul, due to the lack of new housing stock and the continued shift in sales demand, overwhelming the decline (8%).
2023-12-25 12:05:02
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